Covariate Ordered Systematic Sampling as an Improvement to Randomized Controlled Trials
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2024
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| Soggetti: | |
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| _version_ | 1866914756793729024 |
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| author | Jobson, Deddy Yilin, Li Nishimura, Naoki Jie, Yang Ohashi, Koya Matsumoto, Takeshi |
| author_facet | Jobson, Deddy Yilin, Li Nishimura, Naoki Jie, Yang Ohashi, Koya Matsumoto, Takeshi |
| contents | The Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) or A/B testing is considered the gold standard method for estimating causal effects. Fisher famously advocated randomly allocating experiment units into treatment and control groups to preclude systematic biases. We propose a variant of systematic sampling called Covariate Ordered Systematic Sampling (COSS). In COSS, we order experimental units using a pre-experiment covariate and allocate them alternately into treatment and control groups. Using theoretical proofs, experiments on simulated data, and hundreds of A/B tests conducted within 3 real-world marketing campaigns, we show how our method achieves better sensitivity gains than commonly used variance reduction techniques like CUPED while retaining the simplicity of RCTs. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2404_10381 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Covariate Ordered Systematic Sampling as an Improvement to Randomized Controlled Trials Jobson, Deddy Yilin, Li Nishimura, Naoki Jie, Yang Ohashi, Koya Matsumoto, Takeshi Methodology Applications The Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) or A/B testing is considered the gold standard method for estimating causal effects. Fisher famously advocated randomly allocating experiment units into treatment and control groups to preclude systematic biases. We propose a variant of systematic sampling called Covariate Ordered Systematic Sampling (COSS). In COSS, we order experimental units using a pre-experiment covariate and allocate them alternately into treatment and control groups. Using theoretical proofs, experiments on simulated data, and hundreds of A/B tests conducted within 3 real-world marketing campaigns, we show how our method achieves better sensitivity gains than commonly used variance reduction techniques like CUPED while retaining the simplicity of RCTs. |
| title | Covariate Ordered Systematic Sampling as an Improvement to Randomized Controlled Trials |
| topic | Methodology Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.10381 |