Designing a sector-coupled European energy system robust to 60 years of historical weather data
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2024
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| author | Gøtske, Ebbe Kyhl Andresen, Gorm Bruun Neumann, Fabian Victoria, Marta |
| author_facet | Gøtske, Ebbe Kyhl Andresen, Gorm Bruun Neumann, Fabian Victoria, Marta |
| contents | As energy systems transform to rely on renewable energy and electrification, they encounter stronger year-to-year variability in energy supply and demand. However, most infrastructure planning is based on a single weather year, resulting in a lack of robustness. In this paper, we optimize energy infrastructure for a European energy system designed for net-zero CO$_2$ emissions in 62 different weather years. Subsequently, we fix the capacity layouts and simulate their operation in every weather year, to evaluate resource adequacy and CO$_2$ emissions abatement. We show that interannual weather variability causes variation of $\pm$10\% in total system cost. The most expensive capacity layout obtains the lowest net CO$_2$ emissions but not the highest resource adequacy. Instead, capacity layouts designed with years including compound weather events result in a more robust and cost-effective design. Deploying CO$_2$-emitting backup generation is a cost-effective robustness measure, which only increase CO$_2$ emissions marginally as the average CO$_2$ emissions remain less than 1\% of 1990 levels. Our findings highlight how extreme weather years drive investments in robustness measures, making them compatible with all weather conditions within six decades of historical weather data. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2404_12178 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Designing a sector-coupled European energy system robust to 60 years of historical weather data Gøtske, Ebbe Kyhl Andresen, Gorm Bruun Neumann, Fabian Victoria, Marta Physics and Society Systems and Control As energy systems transform to rely on renewable energy and electrification, they encounter stronger year-to-year variability in energy supply and demand. However, most infrastructure planning is based on a single weather year, resulting in a lack of robustness. In this paper, we optimize energy infrastructure for a European energy system designed for net-zero CO$_2$ emissions in 62 different weather years. Subsequently, we fix the capacity layouts and simulate their operation in every weather year, to evaluate resource adequacy and CO$_2$ emissions abatement. We show that interannual weather variability causes variation of $\pm$10\% in total system cost. The most expensive capacity layout obtains the lowest net CO$_2$ emissions but not the highest resource adequacy. Instead, capacity layouts designed with years including compound weather events result in a more robust and cost-effective design. Deploying CO$_2$-emitting backup generation is a cost-effective robustness measure, which only increase CO$_2$ emissions marginally as the average CO$_2$ emissions remain less than 1\% of 1990 levels. Our findings highlight how extreme weather years drive investments in robustness measures, making them compatible with all weather conditions within six decades of historical weather data. |
| title | Designing a sector-coupled European energy system robust to 60 years of historical weather data |
| topic | Physics and Society Systems and Control |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.12178 |