Bayesian Functional Graphical Models with Change-Point Detection

Fuente: arXiv
Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Liu, Chunshan, Kowal, Daniel R., Doss-Gollin, James, Vannucci, Marina
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
Subjects:
Online Access:
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1866912147484704768
author Liu, Chunshan
Kowal, Daniel R.
Doss-Gollin, James
Vannucci, Marina
author_facet Liu, Chunshan
Kowal, Daniel R.
Doss-Gollin, James
Vannucci, Marina
contents Functional data analysis, which models data as realizations of random functions over a continuum, has emerged as a useful tool for time series data. Often, the goal is to infer the dynamic connections (or time-varying conditional dependencies) among multiple functions or time series. For this task, a dynamic and Bayesian functional graphical model is introduced. The proposed modeling approach prioritizes the careful definition of an appropriate graph to identify both time-invariant and time-varying connectivity patterns. A novel block-structured sparsity prior is paired with a finite basis expansion, which together yield effective shrinkage and graph selection with efficient computations via a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Crucially, the model includes (one or more) graph changepoints, which are learned jointly with all model parameters and incorporate graph dynamics. Simulation studies demonstrate excellent graph selection capabilities, with significant improvements over competing methods. The proposed approach is applied to study of dynamic connectivity patterns of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and reveals meaningful edges.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2405_03041
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Bayesian Functional Graphical Models with Change-Point Detection
Liu, Chunshan
Kowal, Daniel R.
Doss-Gollin, James
Vannucci, Marina
Methodology
Functional data analysis, which models data as realizations of random functions over a continuum, has emerged as a useful tool for time series data. Often, the goal is to infer the dynamic connections (or time-varying conditional dependencies) among multiple functions or time series. For this task, a dynamic and Bayesian functional graphical model is introduced. The proposed modeling approach prioritizes the careful definition of an appropriate graph to identify both time-invariant and time-varying connectivity patterns. A novel block-structured sparsity prior is paired with a finite basis expansion, which together yield effective shrinkage and graph selection with efficient computations via a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Crucially, the model includes (one or more) graph changepoints, which are learned jointly with all model parameters and incorporate graph dynamics. Simulation studies demonstrate excellent graph selection capabilities, with significant improvements over competing methods. The proposed approach is applied to study of dynamic connectivity patterns of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and reveals meaningful edges.
title Bayesian Functional Graphical Models with Change-Point Detection
topic Methodology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.03041