Optimal epidemic control by social distancing and vaccination of an infection structured by time since infection: the covid-19 case study
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866929339446067200 |
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| author | d'Onofrio, Alberto Iannelli, Mimmo Manfredi, Piero Marinoschi, Gabriela |
| author_facet | d'Onofrio, Alberto Iannelli, Mimmo Manfredi, Piero Marinoschi, Gabriela |
| contents | Motivated by the issue of COVID-19 mitigation, in this work we tackle the general problem of optimally controlling an epidemic outbreak of a communicable disease structured by time since exposure, by the aid of two types of control instruments namely, social distancing and vaccination by a vaccine at least partly effective in protecting from infection. Effective vaccines are assumed to be made available only in a subsequent period of the epidemic so that - in the first period - epidemic control only relies on social distancing, as it happened for the COVID-19 pandemic. By our analyses, we could prove the existence of (at least) one optimal control pair, we derived first-order necessary conditions for optimality, and proved some useful properties of such optimal solutions. A worked example provides a number of further insights on the relationships between key control and epidemic parameters. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2405_06628 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Optimal epidemic control by social distancing and vaccination of an infection structured by time since infection: the covid-19 case study d'Onofrio, Alberto Iannelli, Mimmo Manfredi, Piero Marinoschi, Gabriela Populations and Evolution Analysis of PDEs Optimization and Control 34K35 Motivated by the issue of COVID-19 mitigation, in this work we tackle the general problem of optimally controlling an epidemic outbreak of a communicable disease structured by time since exposure, by the aid of two types of control instruments namely, social distancing and vaccination by a vaccine at least partly effective in protecting from infection. Effective vaccines are assumed to be made available only in a subsequent period of the epidemic so that - in the first period - epidemic control only relies on social distancing, as it happened for the COVID-19 pandemic. By our analyses, we could prove the existence of (at least) one optimal control pair, we derived first-order necessary conditions for optimality, and proved some useful properties of such optimal solutions. A worked example provides a number of further insights on the relationships between key control and epidemic parameters. |
| title | Optimal epidemic control by social distancing and vaccination of an infection structured by time since infection: the covid-19 case study |
| topic | Populations and Evolution Analysis of PDEs Optimization and Control 34K35 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.06628 |