Uncover mortality patterns and hospital effects in COVID-19 heart failure patients: a novel Multilevel logistic cluster-weighted modeling approach

Fuente: arXiv
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Auteurs principaux: Caldera, Luca, Masci, Chiara, Cappozzo, Andrea, Forlani, Marco, Antonelli, Barbara, Leoni, Olivia, Ieva, Francesca
Format: Preprint
Publié: 2024
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author Caldera, Luca
Masci, Chiara
Cappozzo, Andrea
Forlani, Marco
Antonelli, Barbara
Leoni, Olivia
Ieva, Francesca
author_facet Caldera, Luca
Masci, Chiara
Cappozzo, Andrea
Forlani, Marco
Antonelli, Barbara
Leoni, Olivia
Ieva, Francesca
contents Evaluating hospitals' performance and its relation to patients' characteristics is of utmost importance to ensure timely, effective, and optimal treatment. Such a matter is particularly relevant in areas and situations where the healthcare system must contend with an unexpected surge in hospitalizations, such as for heart failure patients in the Lombardy region of Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Motivated by this issue, the paper introduces a novel Multilevel Logistic Cluster-Weighted Model (ML-CWMd) for predicting 45-day mortality following hospitalization due to COVID-19. The methodology flexibly accommodates dependence patterns among continuous, categorical, and dichotomous variables; effectively accounting for hospital-specific effects in distinct patient subgroups showing different attributes. A tailored Expectation-Maximization algorithm is developed for parameter estimation, and extensive simulation studies are conducted to evaluate its performance against competing models. The novel approach is applied to administrative data from the Lombardy Region, aiming to profile heart failure patients hospitalized for COVID-19 and investigate the hospital-level impact on their overall mortality. A scenario analysis demonstrates the model's efficacy in managing multiple sources of heterogeneity, thereby yielding promising results in aiding healthcare providers and policy-makers in the identification of patient-specific treatment pathways.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2405_11239
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Uncover mortality patterns and hospital effects in COVID-19 heart failure patients: a novel Multilevel logistic cluster-weighted modeling approach
Caldera, Luca
Masci, Chiara
Cappozzo, Andrea
Forlani, Marco
Antonelli, Barbara
Leoni, Olivia
Ieva, Francesca
Applications
Evaluating hospitals' performance and its relation to patients' characteristics is of utmost importance to ensure timely, effective, and optimal treatment. Such a matter is particularly relevant in areas and situations where the healthcare system must contend with an unexpected surge in hospitalizations, such as for heart failure patients in the Lombardy region of Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Motivated by this issue, the paper introduces a novel Multilevel Logistic Cluster-Weighted Model (ML-CWMd) for predicting 45-day mortality following hospitalization due to COVID-19. The methodology flexibly accommodates dependence patterns among continuous, categorical, and dichotomous variables; effectively accounting for hospital-specific effects in distinct patient subgroups showing different attributes. A tailored Expectation-Maximization algorithm is developed for parameter estimation, and extensive simulation studies are conducted to evaluate its performance against competing models. The novel approach is applied to administrative data from the Lombardy Region, aiming to profile heart failure patients hospitalized for COVID-19 and investigate the hospital-level impact on their overall mortality. A scenario analysis demonstrates the model's efficacy in managing multiple sources of heterogeneity, thereby yielding promising results in aiding healthcare providers and policy-makers in the identification of patient-specific treatment pathways.
title Uncover mortality patterns and hospital effects in COVID-19 heart failure patients: a novel Multilevel logistic cluster-weighted modeling approach
topic Applications
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.11239