Asymptotic behaviour of the confidence region in orbit determination for hyperbolic maps with a parameter

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: Bertozzi, Nicola, Bonanno, Claudio
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2024
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author Bertozzi, Nicola
Bonanno, Claudio
author_facet Bertozzi, Nicola
Bonanno, Claudio
contents When dealing with an orbit determination problem, uncertainties naturally arise from intrinsic errors related to observation devices and approximation models. Following the least squares method and applying approximation schemes such as the differential correction, uncertainties can be geometrically summarized in confidence regions and estimated by confidence ellipsoids. We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the confidence ellipsoids while the number of observations and the time span over which they are performed simultaneously increase. Numerical evidences suggest that, in the chaotic scenario, the uncertainties decay at different rates whether the orbit determination is set up to recover the initial conditions alone or along with a dynamical or kinematical parameter, while in the regular case there is no distinction. We show how to improve some of the results in \cite{maro.bonanno}, providing conditions that imply a non-faster-than-polynomial rate of decay in the chaotic case with the parameter, in accordance with the numerical experiments. We also apply these findings to well known examples of chaotic maps, such as piecewise expanding maps of the unit interval or affine hyperbolic toral transformations. We also discuss the applicability to intermittent maps.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2405_13840
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Asymptotic behaviour of the confidence region in orbit determination for hyperbolic maps with a parameter
Bertozzi, Nicola
Bonanno, Claudio
Chaotic Dynamics
Mathematical Physics
Dynamical Systems
When dealing with an orbit determination problem, uncertainties naturally arise from intrinsic errors related to observation devices and approximation models. Following the least squares method and applying approximation schemes such as the differential correction, uncertainties can be geometrically summarized in confidence regions and estimated by confidence ellipsoids. We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the confidence ellipsoids while the number of observations and the time span over which they are performed simultaneously increase. Numerical evidences suggest that, in the chaotic scenario, the uncertainties decay at different rates whether the orbit determination is set up to recover the initial conditions alone or along with a dynamical or kinematical parameter, while in the regular case there is no distinction. We show how to improve some of the results in \cite{maro.bonanno}, providing conditions that imply a non-faster-than-polynomial rate of decay in the chaotic case with the parameter, in accordance with the numerical experiments. We also apply these findings to well known examples of chaotic maps, such as piecewise expanding maps of the unit interval or affine hyperbolic toral transformations. We also discuss the applicability to intermittent maps.
title Asymptotic behaviour of the confidence region in orbit determination for hyperbolic maps with a parameter
topic Chaotic Dynamics
Mathematical Physics
Dynamical Systems
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.13840