Towards a Probabilistic Fusion Approach for Robust Battery Prognostics

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Alcibar, Jokin, Aizpurua, Jose I., Zugasti, Ekhi
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
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author Alcibar, Jokin
Aizpurua, Jose I.
Zugasti, Ekhi
author_facet Alcibar, Jokin
Aizpurua, Jose I.
Zugasti, Ekhi
contents Batteries are a key enabling technology for the decarbonization of transport and energy sectors. The safe and reliable operation of batteries is crucial for battery-powered systems. In this direction, the development of accurate and robust battery state-of-health prognostics models can unlock the potential of autonomous systems for complex, remote and reliable operations. The combination of Neural Networks, Bayesian modelling concepts and ensemble learning strategies, form a valuable prognostics framework to combine uncertainty in a robust and accurate manner. Accordingly, this paper introduces a Bayesian ensemble learning approach to predict the capacity depletion of lithium-ion batteries. The approach accurately predicts the capacity fade and quantifies the uncertainty associated with battery design and degradation processes. The proposed Bayesian ensemble methodology employs a stacking technique, integrating multiple Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) as base learners, which have been trained on data diversity. The proposed method has been validated using a battery aging dataset collected by the NASA Ames Prognostics Center of Excellence. Obtained results demonstrate the improved accuracy and robustness of the proposed probabilistic fusion approach with respect to (i) a single BNN model and (ii) a classical stacking strategy based on different BNNs.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2405_15292
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Towards a Probabilistic Fusion Approach for Robust Battery Prognostics
Alcibar, Jokin
Aizpurua, Jose I.
Zugasti, Ekhi
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Batteries are a key enabling technology for the decarbonization of transport and energy sectors. The safe and reliable operation of batteries is crucial for battery-powered systems. In this direction, the development of accurate and robust battery state-of-health prognostics models can unlock the potential of autonomous systems for complex, remote and reliable operations. The combination of Neural Networks, Bayesian modelling concepts and ensemble learning strategies, form a valuable prognostics framework to combine uncertainty in a robust and accurate manner. Accordingly, this paper introduces a Bayesian ensemble learning approach to predict the capacity depletion of lithium-ion batteries. The approach accurately predicts the capacity fade and quantifies the uncertainty associated with battery design and degradation processes. The proposed Bayesian ensemble methodology employs a stacking technique, integrating multiple Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) as base learners, which have been trained on data diversity. The proposed method has been validated using a battery aging dataset collected by the NASA Ames Prognostics Center of Excellence. Obtained results demonstrate the improved accuracy and robustness of the proposed probabilistic fusion approach with respect to (i) a single BNN model and (ii) a classical stacking strategy based on different BNNs.
title Towards a Probabilistic Fusion Approach for Robust Battery Prognostics
topic Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.15292