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Auteurs principaux: Thas, Olivier, Jaspers, Stijn
Format: Preprint
Publié: 2024
Sujets:
Accès en ligne:https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.17064
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author Thas, Olivier
Jaspers, Stijn
author_facet Thas, Olivier
Jaspers, Stijn
contents In an attempt to provide an answer to the increasing criticism against p-values and to bridge the gap between statistical inference and prediction modelling, we introduce the probability of improved prediction (PIP). In general, the PIP is a probabilistic measure for comparing two competing models. Three versions of the PIP and several estimators are introduced and the relationships between them, p-values and the mean squared error are investigated. The performance of the estimators is assessed in a simulation study. An application shows how the PIP can support p-values to strengthen the conclusions or possibly point at issues with e.g. replicability.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2405_17064
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle The Probability of Improved Prediction: a new concept in statistical inference
Thas, Olivier
Jaspers, Stijn
Methodology
In an attempt to provide an answer to the increasing criticism against p-values and to bridge the gap between statistical inference and prediction modelling, we introduce the probability of improved prediction (PIP). In general, the PIP is a probabilistic measure for comparing two competing models. Three versions of the PIP and several estimators are introduced and the relationships between them, p-values and the mean squared error are investigated. The performance of the estimators is assessed in a simulation study. An application shows how the PIP can support p-values to strengthen the conclusions or possibly point at issues with e.g. replicability.
title The Probability of Improved Prediction: a new concept in statistical inference
topic Methodology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.17064