Benchmarking AlphaFold3's protein-protein complex accuracy and machine learning prediction reliability for binding free energy changes upon mutation

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Autori principali: Wee, JunJie, Wei, Guo-Wei
Natura: Preprint
Pubblicazione: 2024
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author Wee, JunJie
Wei, Guo-Wei
author_facet Wee, JunJie
Wei, Guo-Wei
contents AlphaFold 3 (AF3), the latest version of protein structure prediction software, goes beyond its predecessors by predicting protein-protein complexes. It could revolutionize drug discovery and protein engineering, marking a major step towards comprehensive, automated protein structure prediction. However, independent validation of AF3's predictions is necessary. Evaluated using the SKEMPI 2.0 database which involves 317 protein-protein complexes and 8338 mutations, AF3 complex structures give rise to a very good Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.86 for predicting protein-protein binding free energy changes upon mutation, slightly less than the 0.88 achieved earlier with the Protein Data Bank (PDB) structures. Nonetheless, AF3 complex structures led to a 8.6% increase in the prediction RMSE compared to original PDB complex structures. Additionally, some of AF3's complex structures have large errors, which were not captured in its ipTM performance metric. Finally, it is found that AF3's complex structures are not reliable for intrinsically flexible regions or domains.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2406_03979
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Benchmarking AlphaFold3's protein-protein complex accuracy and machine learning prediction reliability for binding free energy changes upon mutation
Wee, JunJie
Wei, Guo-Wei
Biomolecules
Algebraic Topology
Quantitative Methods
AlphaFold 3 (AF3), the latest version of protein structure prediction software, goes beyond its predecessors by predicting protein-protein complexes. It could revolutionize drug discovery and protein engineering, marking a major step towards comprehensive, automated protein structure prediction. However, independent validation of AF3's predictions is necessary. Evaluated using the SKEMPI 2.0 database which involves 317 protein-protein complexes and 8338 mutations, AF3 complex structures give rise to a very good Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.86 for predicting protein-protein binding free energy changes upon mutation, slightly less than the 0.88 achieved earlier with the Protein Data Bank (PDB) structures. Nonetheless, AF3 complex structures led to a 8.6% increase in the prediction RMSE compared to original PDB complex structures. Additionally, some of AF3's complex structures have large errors, which were not captured in its ipTM performance metric. Finally, it is found that AF3's complex structures are not reliable for intrinsically flexible regions or domains.
title Benchmarking AlphaFold3's protein-protein complex accuracy and machine learning prediction reliability for binding free energy changes upon mutation
topic Biomolecules
Algebraic Topology
Quantitative Methods
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.03979