Inestability presented in the estimating of the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866910479762325504 |
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| author | Rodríguez-Sánchez, Ainara |
| author_facet | Rodríguez-Sánchez, Ainara |
| contents | The literature shows the possible existence of a problem called collinearity in both Nelson-Siegel and Nelson-Siegel-Svensson models due to the relationship between the slope and curvature components. The presence of this problem and the estimation of both models by Ordinary Least Squares would lead to coefficients estimates that may be unstable among other consequences. However, these estimates are used to make monetary policy decisions. For this reason, it is important to try mitigating this collinearity problem. Consequently, some authors propose traditional procedures for the treatment of collinearity such as: non-linear optimisation, to fix the shape parameter or ridge regression. Nevertheless, all these processes have their disadvantages. Alternatively, a new method with good properties called raise regression is proposed in this paper. Finally, the methodologies are illustrated with an empirical comparison on Euribor Overnight Index Swap and Euribor Interest Rates Swap data between 2011 and 2021. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2406_06177 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Inestability presented in the estimating of the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model Rodríguez-Sánchez, Ainara Applications The literature shows the possible existence of a problem called collinearity in both Nelson-Siegel and Nelson-Siegel-Svensson models due to the relationship between the slope and curvature components. The presence of this problem and the estimation of both models by Ordinary Least Squares would lead to coefficients estimates that may be unstable among other consequences. However, these estimates are used to make monetary policy decisions. For this reason, it is important to try mitigating this collinearity problem. Consequently, some authors propose traditional procedures for the treatment of collinearity such as: non-linear optimisation, to fix the shape parameter or ridge regression. Nevertheless, all these processes have their disadvantages. Alternatively, a new method with good properties called raise regression is proposed in this paper. Finally, the methodologies are illustrated with an empirical comparison on Euribor Overnight Index Swap and Euribor Interest Rates Swap data between 2011 and 2021. |
| title | Inestability presented in the estimating of the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.06177 |