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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.03158 |
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| _version_ | 1866915635125026816 |
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| author | Bondesan, Andrea Piralla, Antonio Ballante, Elena Pitrolo, Antonino Maria Guglielmo Figini, Silvia Baldanti, Fausto Zanella, Mattia |
| author_facet | Bondesan, Andrea Piralla, Antonio Ballante, Elena Pitrolo, Antonino Maria Guglielmo Figini, Silvia Baldanti, Fausto Zanella, Mattia |
| contents | A pipeline to evaluate the evolution of viral dynamics based on a new model-driven approach has been developed in the present study. The proposed methods exploit real data and the multiscale structure of the infection dynamics to provide robust predictions of the epidemic dynamics. We focus on viral load kinetics whose dynamical features are typically available in the symptomatic stage of the infection. Hence, the epidemiological evolution is obtained by relying on a compartmental approach characterized by a varying infection rate to estimate early-stage viral load dynamics, of which few data are available. We test the proposed approach with real data of SARS-CoV-2 viral load kinetics collected from patients living in an Italian province. The considered database refers to early-phase infections, whose viral load kinetics have not been affected by the mass vaccination policies in Italy. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2407_03158 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Predictability of viral load dynamics in the early phases of SARS-CoV-2 through a model-based approach Bondesan, Andrea Piralla, Antonio Ballante, Elena Pitrolo, Antonino Maria Guglielmo Figini, Silvia Baldanti, Fausto Zanella, Mattia Populations and Evolution Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems Biological Physics 92C60, 92C50, 45K05, 65R20, 65C05 A pipeline to evaluate the evolution of viral dynamics based on a new model-driven approach has been developed in the present study. The proposed methods exploit real data and the multiscale structure of the infection dynamics to provide robust predictions of the epidemic dynamics. We focus on viral load kinetics whose dynamical features are typically available in the symptomatic stage of the infection. Hence, the epidemiological evolution is obtained by relying on a compartmental approach characterized by a varying infection rate to estimate early-stage viral load dynamics, of which few data are available. We test the proposed approach with real data of SARS-CoV-2 viral load kinetics collected from patients living in an Italian province. The considered database refers to early-phase infections, whose viral load kinetics have not been affected by the mass vaccination policies in Italy. |
| title | Predictability of viral load dynamics in the early phases of SARS-CoV-2 through a model-based approach |
| topic | Populations and Evolution Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems Biological Physics 92C60, 92C50, 45K05, 65R20, 65C05 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.03158 |