The Complex Interplay Between Risk Tolerance and the Spread of Infectious Diseases
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2024
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| author | Nguyen, Maximilian Freedman, Ari Cheung, Matthew Saad-Roy, Chadi Espinoza, Baltazar Grenfell, Bryan Levin, Simon |
| author_facet | Nguyen, Maximilian Freedman, Ari Cheung, Matthew Saad-Roy, Chadi Espinoza, Baltazar Grenfell, Bryan Levin, Simon |
| contents | Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the population with regards to risk tolerance. The interplay between behavior and epidemiology leads to a rich set of possible epidemic dynamics. Depending on the behavioral composition of the population, we find that increasing heterogeneity in risk tolerance can either increase or decrease the epidemic size. We find that multiple waves of infection can arise due to the interplay between transmission and behavior, even without the replenishment of susceptibles. We find that increasing protective mechanisms such as the effectiveness of interventions, the number of risk-averse people in the population, and the duration of intervention usage reduces the epidemic overshoot. When the protection is pushed past a critical threshold, the epidemic dynamics enter an underdamped regime where the epidemic size exactly equals the herd immunity threshold. Lastly, we can find regimes where epidemic size does not monotonically decrease with a population that becomes increasingly risk-averse. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2407_03376 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | The Complex Interplay Between Risk Tolerance and the Spread of Infectious Diseases Nguyen, Maximilian Freedman, Ari Cheung, Matthew Saad-Roy, Chadi Espinoza, Baltazar Grenfell, Bryan Levin, Simon Physics and Society Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems Populations and Evolution Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the population with regards to risk tolerance. The interplay between behavior and epidemiology leads to a rich set of possible epidemic dynamics. Depending on the behavioral composition of the population, we find that increasing heterogeneity in risk tolerance can either increase or decrease the epidemic size. We find that multiple waves of infection can arise due to the interplay between transmission and behavior, even without the replenishment of susceptibles. We find that increasing protective mechanisms such as the effectiveness of interventions, the number of risk-averse people in the population, and the duration of intervention usage reduces the epidemic overshoot. When the protection is pushed past a critical threshold, the epidemic dynamics enter an underdamped regime where the epidemic size exactly equals the herd immunity threshold. Lastly, we can find regimes where epidemic size does not monotonically decrease with a population that becomes increasingly risk-averse. |
| title | The Complex Interplay Between Risk Tolerance and the Spread of Infectious Diseases |
| topic | Physics and Society Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems Populations and Evolution |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.03376 |