Implications of the abundance of halo coronal mass ejections for the strength of solar cycle 25

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: Gopalswamy, Nat, Michalek, Grzegorz, Yashiro, Seiji, Makela, Pertti, Akiyama, Sachiko, Xie, Hong
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2024
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author Gopalswamy, Nat
Michalek, Grzegorz
Yashiro, Seiji
Makela, Pertti
Akiyama, Sachiko
Xie, Hong
author_facet Gopalswamy, Nat
Michalek, Grzegorz
Yashiro, Seiji
Makela, Pertti
Akiyama, Sachiko
Xie, Hong
contents We assess the relative strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 with respect to SCs 23 and 24 based on the abundance of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We make use of the halo CME database (https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/halo/halo.html) to compare the halo CME abundance during the first four years in each of SCs 23 to 25. The main result is that in several aspects such as the abundance, occurrence rate, source locations, and halo heights, halo CMEs are similar between SCs 24 and 25 but different from SC 23. This result follows from the fact that weaker cycles have low heliospheric total pressure, whose backreaction on CMEs allows them to expand more and hence enhancing the chance of becoming a halo. The solar cycle variation of halo CME properties is consistent with the precursor-based cycle prediction methods that indicate SC 25 is similar to or only slightly stronger than SC 24.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2407_04548
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Implications of the abundance of halo coronal mass ejections for the strength of solar cycle 25
Gopalswamy, Nat
Michalek, Grzegorz
Yashiro, Seiji
Makela, Pertti
Akiyama, Sachiko
Xie, Hong
Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
We assess the relative strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 with respect to SCs 23 and 24 based on the abundance of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We make use of the halo CME database (https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/halo/halo.html) to compare the halo CME abundance during the first four years in each of SCs 23 to 25. The main result is that in several aspects such as the abundance, occurrence rate, source locations, and halo heights, halo CMEs are similar between SCs 24 and 25 but different from SC 23. This result follows from the fact that weaker cycles have low heliospheric total pressure, whose backreaction on CMEs allows them to expand more and hence enhancing the chance of becoming a halo. The solar cycle variation of halo CME properties is consistent with the precursor-based cycle prediction methods that indicate SC 25 is similar to or only slightly stronger than SC 24.
title Implications of the abundance of halo coronal mass ejections for the strength of solar cycle 25
topic Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.04548