Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Lindor, Bethlee, Agol, Eric
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.13154
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1866909985094500352
author Lindor, Bethlee
Agol, Eric
author_facet Lindor, Bethlee
Agol, Eric
contents Planetary systems with multiple transiting planets are beneficial for understanding planet occurrence rates and system architectures. Although we have yet to find a solar system analogue, future surveys may detect multiple terrestrial planets transiting a Sun-like star. In this work, we simulate transit timing observations of our system based on the actual orbital motions of Venus and the Earth+Moon (EM) -- influenced by the other solar system objects -- and retrieve the system's dynamical parameters for varying noise levels and observing durations. Using an approximate coplanar N-body model for transit-time variations, we consider test configurations with 2, 3, and 4 planets. For various observing baselines, we can robustly retrieve the masses and orbits of Venus and EM; detect Jupiter at high significance (for < 90-second timing error and baseline $\leq$ 15 yrs); and detect Mars at 5 $σ$ confidence (with < 20-second timing error and baseline $\geq$ 27 yrs) using TTVFaster. We also find that the 3-planet model is generally preferred, and provide equations to estimate the mass precision of Venus/Earth/Jupiter-analogues. The addition of Mars -- which is near a 2:1 mean-motion resonance with Earth -- improves our retrieval of Jupiter's parameters, suggesting that unseen terrestrials could interfere in the characterization of multi-planetary systems. Our findings are comparable to theoretical limits based upon stellar variability and may eventually be possible.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2407_13154
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Modeling the Solar System I: Characterization Limits from Analytic Timing Variations
Lindor, Bethlee
Agol, Eric
Earth and Planetary Astrophysics
Planetary systems with multiple transiting planets are beneficial for understanding planet occurrence rates and system architectures. Although we have yet to find a solar system analogue, future surveys may detect multiple terrestrial planets transiting a Sun-like star. In this work, we simulate transit timing observations of our system based on the actual orbital motions of Venus and the Earth+Moon (EM) -- influenced by the other solar system objects -- and retrieve the system's dynamical parameters for varying noise levels and observing durations. Using an approximate coplanar N-body model for transit-time variations, we consider test configurations with 2, 3, and 4 planets. For various observing baselines, we can robustly retrieve the masses and orbits of Venus and EM; detect Jupiter at high significance (for < 90-second timing error and baseline $\leq$ 15 yrs); and detect Mars at 5 $σ$ confidence (with < 20-second timing error and baseline $\geq$ 27 yrs) using TTVFaster. We also find that the 3-planet model is generally preferred, and provide equations to estimate the mass precision of Venus/Earth/Jupiter-analogues. The addition of Mars -- which is near a 2:1 mean-motion resonance with Earth -- improves our retrieval of Jupiter's parameters, suggesting that unseen terrestrials could interfere in the characterization of multi-planetary systems. Our findings are comparable to theoretical limits based upon stellar variability and may eventually be possible.
title Modeling the Solar System I: Characterization Limits from Analytic Timing Variations
topic Earth and Planetary Astrophysics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.13154