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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2024
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| Sujets: | |
| Accès en ligne: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.13605 |
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| _version_ | 1866929450547937280 |
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| author | Jiang, Wei Chen, Tong Ye, Guanhua Zhang, Wentao Cui, Lizhen Huang, Zi Yin, Hongzhi |
| author_facet | Jiang, Wei Chen, Tong Ye, Guanhua Zhang, Wentao Cui, Lizhen Huang, Zi Yin, Hongzhi |
| contents | Urban flow prediction is a spatio-temporal modeling task that estimates the throughput of transportation services like buses, taxis, and ride-sharing, where data-driven models have become the most popular solution in the past decade. Meanwhile, the implicitly learned mapping between historical observations to the prediction targets tend to over-simplify the dynamics of real-world urban flows, leading to suboptimal predictions. Some recent spatio-temporal prediction solutions bring remedies with the notion of physics-guided machine learning (PGML), which describes spatio-temporal data with nuanced and principled physics laws, thus enhancing both the prediction accuracy and interpretability. However, these spatio-temporal PGML methods are built upon a strong assumption that the observed data fully conforms to the differential equations that define the physical system, which can quickly become ill-posed in urban flow prediction tasks. The observed urban flow data, especially when sliced into time-dependent snapshots to facilitate predictions, is typically incomplete and sparse, and prone to inherent noise incurred in the collection process. As a result, such physical inconsistency between the data and PGML model significantly limits the predictive power and robustness of the solution. Moreover, due to the interval-based predictions and intermittent nature of data filing in many transportation services, the instantaneous dynamics of urban flows can hardly be captured, rendering differential equation-based continuous modeling a loose fit for this setting. To overcome the challenges, we develop a discretized physics-guided network (PN), and propose a data-aware framework Physics-guided Active Sample Reweighting (P-GASR) to enhance PN. Experimental results in four real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance with a demonstrable improvement in robustness. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2407_13605 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Physics-guided Active Sample Reweighting for Urban Flow Prediction Jiang, Wei Chen, Tong Ye, Guanhua Zhang, Wentao Cui, Lizhen Huang, Zi Yin, Hongzhi Machine Learning Urban flow prediction is a spatio-temporal modeling task that estimates the throughput of transportation services like buses, taxis, and ride-sharing, where data-driven models have become the most popular solution in the past decade. Meanwhile, the implicitly learned mapping between historical observations to the prediction targets tend to over-simplify the dynamics of real-world urban flows, leading to suboptimal predictions. Some recent spatio-temporal prediction solutions bring remedies with the notion of physics-guided machine learning (PGML), which describes spatio-temporal data with nuanced and principled physics laws, thus enhancing both the prediction accuracy and interpretability. However, these spatio-temporal PGML methods are built upon a strong assumption that the observed data fully conforms to the differential equations that define the physical system, which can quickly become ill-posed in urban flow prediction tasks. The observed urban flow data, especially when sliced into time-dependent snapshots to facilitate predictions, is typically incomplete and sparse, and prone to inherent noise incurred in the collection process. As a result, such physical inconsistency between the data and PGML model significantly limits the predictive power and robustness of the solution. Moreover, due to the interval-based predictions and intermittent nature of data filing in many transportation services, the instantaneous dynamics of urban flows can hardly be captured, rendering differential equation-based continuous modeling a loose fit for this setting. To overcome the challenges, we develop a discretized physics-guided network (PN), and propose a data-aware framework Physics-guided Active Sample Reweighting (P-GASR) to enhance PN. Experimental results in four real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance with a demonstrable improvement in robustness. |
| title | Physics-guided Active Sample Reweighting for Urban Flow Prediction |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.13605 |