Improving probabilistic forecasts of extreme wind speeds by training statistical post-processing models with weighted scoring rules
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | Wessel, Jakob Benjamin, Ferro, Christopher A. T., Evans, Gavin R., Kwasniok, Frank |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2024
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
Similar Items
Enforcing tail calibration when training probabilistic forecast models
by: Wessel, Jakob Benjamin, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Wessel, Jakob Benjamin, et al.
Published: (2025)
Lead‐time‐continuous statistical postprocessing of ensemble weather forecasts
by: Jakob Benjamin Wessel, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Jakob Benjamin Wessel, et al.
Published: (2024)
Statistical post-processing of operational dual-resolution wind-speed ensemble forecasts
by: Baran, Sándor, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Baran, Sándor, et al.
Published: (2025)
Evaluating infectious disease forecasts with allocation scoring rules
by: Gerding, Aaron, et al.
Published: (2023)
by: Gerding, Aaron, et al.
Published: (2023)
Seamless short- to mid-term probabilistic wind power forecasting
by: Dantas, Gabriel, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Dantas, Gabriel, et al.
Published: (2025)
Parametric model for post-processing visibility ensemble forecasts
by: Baran, Ágnes, et al.
Published: (2023)
by: Baran, Ágnes, et al.
Published: (2023)
An intuitive rearranging of the Yates covariance decomposition for probabilistic verification of forecasts with the Brier score
by: Vieira, Bruno Hebling
Published: (2026)
by: Vieira, Bruno Hebling
Published: (2026)
Evaluation of forecasted wind speed at turbine hub height and wind ramps by five NWP models with observations from 262 wind farms over China
by: Chenxi Jin, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Chenxi Jin, et al.
Published: (2024)
Estimation of extreme wind speeds with different return periods in the Northwest Pacific
by: Lisha Kong, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Lisha Kong, et al.
Published: (2024)
A two-step machine learning approach to statistical post-processing of weather forecasts for power generation
by: Baran, Ágnes, et al.
Published: (2022)
by: Baran, Ágnes, et al.
Published: (2022)
Adaptive probabilistic forecasting of French electricity spot prices
by: Dutot, Grégoire, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Dutot, Grégoire, et al.
Published: (2024)
Statistical post-processing of visibility ensemble forecasts
by: Baran, Sándor, et al.
Published: (2023)
by: Baran, Sándor, et al.
Published: (2023)
Joint modeling of wind speed and wind direction through a conditional approach
by: Murphy, Eva, et al.
Published: (2022)
by: Murphy, Eva, et al.
Published: (2022)
Comparison of probabilistic nowcasts and forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 variant proportions made by hierarchical multinomial linear regression models
by: MacArthur, Isaac, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: MacArthur, Isaac, et al.
Published: (2026)
Expectile regression averaging method for probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices
by: Janczura, Joanna
Published: (2024)
by: Janczura, Joanna
Published: (2024)
evalprob4cast: An R-package for evaluation of ensembles as probabilistic forecasts or event forecasts
by: Bjerregård, Mathias Blicher, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Bjerregård, Mathias Blicher, et al.
Published: (2025)
nabqr: Python package for improving probabilistic forecasts
by: Jørgensena, Bastian Schmidt, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Jørgensena, Bastian Schmidt, et al.
Published: (2025)
Enhancing the statistical evaluation of earthquake forecasts -- An application to Italy
by: Brehmer, Jonas R., et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Brehmer, Jonas R., et al.
Published: (2024)
Machine learning-based probabilistic forecasting of solar irradiance in Chile
by: Baran, Sándor, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Baran, Sándor, et al.
Published: (2024)
Enhancing multivariate post-processed visibility predictions utilizing CAMS forecasts
by: Lakatos, Mária, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Lakatos, Mária, et al.
Published: (2024)
Numerical models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes
by: Zhang, Zhongwei, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Zhang, Zhongwei, et al.
Published: (2025)
Climate data selection for multi-decadal wind power forecasts
by: Morelli, Sofia, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Morelli, Sofia, et al.
Published: (2024)
A new approach to probabilistic population forecasting with an application to Estonia
by: Swanson, David A., et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Swanson, David A., et al.
Published: (2025)
Enhancing multivariate post‐processed visibility predictions utilizing Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service forecasts
by: Mária Lakatos, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Mária Lakatos, et al.
Published: (2024)
Probabilistic forecasting of weather-driven faults in electricity networks: a flexible approach for extreme and non-extreme events
by: Maia, Mateus, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Maia, Mateus, et al.
Published: (2026)
More on verification of probability forecasts for football outcomes: score decompositions, reliability, and discrimination analyses
by: Foulley, Jean-Louis
Published: (2021)
by: Foulley, Jean-Louis
Published: (2021)
Post-processing of wind gusts from COSMO-REA6 with a spatial Bayesian hierarchical extreme value model
by: Ertz, Philipp, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Ertz, Philipp, et al.
Published: (2025)
Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: A new approach to probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices
by: Uniejewski, Bartosz
Published: (2023)
by: Uniejewski, Bartosz
Published: (2023)
Ensemble size dependence of the logarithmic score for forecasts issued as multivariate normal distributions
by: Leutbecher, Martin, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Leutbecher, Martin, et al.
Published: (2024)
Leveraging statistical models to improve pre-season forecasting and in-season management of a recreational fishery
by: Hyman, A. Challen, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Hyman, A. Challen, et al.
Published: (2025)
The impact of the spatial resolution of wind data on multi-decadal wind power forecasts in Germany
by: Morelli, Sofia
Published: (2024)
by: Morelli, Sofia
Published: (2024)
Integration of max-stable processes and Bayesian model averaging to predict extreme climatic events in multi-model ensembles
by: Shin, Yonggwan, et al.
Published: (2020)
by: Shin, Yonggwan, et al.
Published: (2020)
A framework for statistical modelling of the extremes of longitudinal data, applied to elite swimming
by: Spearing, Jess, et al.
Published: (2023)
by: Spearing, Jess, et al.
Published: (2023)
Skilful probabilistic medium‐range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning system
by: Lucy Main, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Lucy Main, et al.
Published: (2024)
Clustering-based spatial interpolation of parametric post-processing models
by: Baran, Sándor, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Baran, Sándor, et al.
Published: (2024)
Online stochastic generators using Slepian bases for regional bivariate wind speed ensembles from ERA5
by: Song, Yan, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Song, Yan, et al.
Published: (2024)
Improving blended probability forecasts with neural networks
by: Belinda Trotta
Published: (2024)
by: Belinda Trotta
Published: (2024)
Multipopulation mortality modelling and forecasting: The multivariate functional principal component with time weightings approaches
by: Lam, Ka Kin, et al.
Published: (2021)
by: Lam, Ka Kin, et al.
Published: (2021)
Reliability modeling and statistical analysis of accelerated degradation process with memory effects and unit-to-unit variability
by: Chen, Shi-Shun, et al.
Published: (2023)
by: Chen, Shi-Shun, et al.
Published: (2023)
Physics-based vs. data-driven 24-hour probabilistic forecasts of precipitation for northern tropical Africa
by: Walz, Eva-Maria, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Walz, Eva-Maria, et al.
Published: (2024)
Similar Items
-
Enforcing tail calibration when training probabilistic forecast models
by: Wessel, Jakob Benjamin, et al.
Published: (2025) -
Lead‐time‐continuous statistical postprocessing of ensemble weather forecasts
by: Jakob Benjamin Wessel, et al.
Published: (2024) -
Statistical post-processing of operational dual-resolution wind-speed ensemble forecasts
by: Baran, Sándor, et al.
Published: (2025) -
Evaluating infectious disease forecasts with allocation scoring rules
by: Gerding, Aaron, et al.
Published: (2023) -
Seamless short- to mid-term probabilistic wind power forecasting
by: Dantas, Gabriel, et al.
Published: (2025)