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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.20510 |
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| _version_ | 1866910874709524480 |
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| author | Agazie, Gabriella Anumarlapudi, Akash Archibald, Anne M. Arzoumanian, Zaven Baier, Jeremy George Baker, Paul T. Bécsy, Bence Blecha, Laura Brazier, Adam Brook, Paul R. Burke-Spolaor, Sarah Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew Charisi, Maria Chatterjee, Shami Chatziioannou, Katerina Cohen, Tyler Cordes, James M. Cornish, Neil J. Crawford, Fronefield Cromartie, H. Thankful Crowter, Kathryn DeCesar, Megan E. Demorest, Paul B. Deng, Heling Dey, Lankeswar Dolch, Timothy Ferrara, Elizabeth C. Fiore, William Fonseca, Emmanuel Freedman, Gabriel E. Gardiner, Emiko C. Garver-Daniels, Nate Gentile, Peter A. Gersbach, Kyle A. Glaser, Joseph Good, Deborah C. Gültekin, Kayhan Hazboun, Jeffrey S. Jennings, Ross J. Johnson, Aaron D. Jones, Megan L. Kaiser, Andrew R. Kaplan, David L. Kelley, Luke Zoltan Kerr, Matthew Key, Joey S. Laal, Nima Lam, Michael T. Lamb, William G. Larsen, Bjorn Lazio, T. Joseph W. Lewandowska, Natalia Liu, Tingting Lorimer, Duncan R. Luo, Jing Lynch, Ryan S. Ma, Chung-Pei Madison, Dustin R. McEwen, Alexander McKee, James W. McLaughlin, Maura A. McMann, Natasha Meyers, Bradley W. Meyers, Patrick M. Mingarelli, Chiara M. F. Mitridate, Andrea Ng, Cherry Nice, David J. Ocker, Stella Koch Olum, Ken D. Pennucci, Timothy T. Perera, Benetge B. P. Pol, Nihan S. Radovan, Henri A. Ransom, Scott M. Ray, Paul S. Romano, Joseph D. Runnoe, Jessie C. Saffer, Alexander Sardesai, Shashwat C. Schmiedekamp, Ann Schmiedekamp, Carl Schmitz, Kai Shapiro-Albert, Brent J. Siemens, Xavier Simon, Joseph Siwek, Magdalena S. Fiscella, Sophia V. Sosa Stairs, Ingrid H. Stinebring, Daniel R. Stovall, Kevin Susobhanan, Abhimanyu Swiggum, Joseph K. Taylor, Stephen R. Turner, Jacob E. Unal, Caner Vallisneri, Michele Vigeland, Sarah J. Wahl, Haley M. Witt, Caitlin A. Wright, David Young, Olivia |
| author_facet | Agazie, Gabriella Anumarlapudi, Akash Archibald, Anne M. Arzoumanian, Zaven Baier, Jeremy George Baker, Paul T. Bécsy, Bence Blecha, Laura Brazier, Adam Brook, Paul R. Burke-Spolaor, Sarah Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew Charisi, Maria Chatterjee, Shami Chatziioannou, Katerina Cohen, Tyler Cordes, James M. Cornish, Neil J. Crawford, Fronefield Cromartie, H. Thankful Crowter, Kathryn DeCesar, Megan E. Demorest, Paul B. Deng, Heling Dey, Lankeswar Dolch, Timothy Ferrara, Elizabeth C. Fiore, William Fonseca, Emmanuel Freedman, Gabriel E. Gardiner, Emiko C. Garver-Daniels, Nate Gentile, Peter A. Gersbach, Kyle A. Glaser, Joseph Good, Deborah C. Gültekin, Kayhan Hazboun, Jeffrey S. Jennings, Ross J. Johnson, Aaron D. Jones, Megan L. Kaiser, Andrew R. Kaplan, David L. Kelley, Luke Zoltan Kerr, Matthew Key, Joey S. Laal, Nima Lam, Michael T. Lamb, William G. Larsen, Bjorn Lazio, T. Joseph W. Lewandowska, Natalia Liu, Tingting Lorimer, Duncan R. Luo, Jing Lynch, Ryan S. Ma, Chung-Pei Madison, Dustin R. McEwen, Alexander McKee, James W. McLaughlin, Maura A. McMann, Natasha Meyers, Bradley W. Meyers, Patrick M. Mingarelli, Chiara M. F. Mitridate, Andrea Ng, Cherry Nice, David J. Ocker, Stella Koch Olum, Ken D. Pennucci, Timothy T. Perera, Benetge B. P. Pol, Nihan S. Radovan, Henri A. Ransom, Scott M. Ray, Paul S. Romano, Joseph D. Runnoe, Jessie C. Saffer, Alexander Sardesai, Shashwat C. Schmiedekamp, Ann Schmiedekamp, Carl Schmitz, Kai Shapiro-Albert, Brent J. Siemens, Xavier Simon, Joseph Siwek, Magdalena S. Fiscella, Sophia V. Sosa Stairs, Ingrid H. Stinebring, Daniel R. Stovall, Kevin Susobhanan, Abhimanyu Swiggum, Joseph K. Taylor, Stephen R. Turner, Jacob E. Unal, Caner Vallisneri, Michele Vigeland, Sarah J. Wahl, Haley M. Witt, Caitlin A. Wright, David Young, Olivia |
| contents | Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Their analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks. After fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications. We use the replications to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients are extreme. We recover Hellings--Downs correlations in simulated data sets at significance levels consistent with the correlations measured in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. A similar test on spectral coefficients shows that their values in real data are not extreme compared to their distributions across replications. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2 $σ$ and 3 $σ$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2407_20510 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | The NANOGrav 15 yr data set: Posterior predictive checks for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays Agazie, Gabriella Anumarlapudi, Akash Archibald, Anne M. Arzoumanian, Zaven Baier, Jeremy George Baker, Paul T. Bécsy, Bence Blecha, Laura Brazier, Adam Brook, Paul R. Burke-Spolaor, Sarah Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew Charisi, Maria Chatterjee, Shami Chatziioannou, Katerina Cohen, Tyler Cordes, James M. Cornish, Neil J. Crawford, Fronefield Cromartie, H. Thankful Crowter, Kathryn DeCesar, Megan E. Demorest, Paul B. Deng, Heling Dey, Lankeswar Dolch, Timothy Ferrara, Elizabeth C. Fiore, William Fonseca, Emmanuel Freedman, Gabriel E. Gardiner, Emiko C. Garver-Daniels, Nate Gentile, Peter A. Gersbach, Kyle A. Glaser, Joseph Good, Deborah C. Gültekin, Kayhan Hazboun, Jeffrey S. Jennings, Ross J. Johnson, Aaron D. Jones, Megan L. Kaiser, Andrew R. Kaplan, David L. Kelley, Luke Zoltan Kerr, Matthew Key, Joey S. Laal, Nima Lam, Michael T. Lamb, William G. Larsen, Bjorn Lazio, T. Joseph W. Lewandowska, Natalia Liu, Tingting Lorimer, Duncan R. Luo, Jing Lynch, Ryan S. Ma, Chung-Pei Madison, Dustin R. McEwen, Alexander McKee, James W. McLaughlin, Maura A. McMann, Natasha Meyers, Bradley W. Meyers, Patrick M. Mingarelli, Chiara M. F. Mitridate, Andrea Ng, Cherry Nice, David J. Ocker, Stella Koch Olum, Ken D. Pennucci, Timothy T. Perera, Benetge B. P. Pol, Nihan S. Radovan, Henri A. Ransom, Scott M. Ray, Paul S. Romano, Joseph D. Runnoe, Jessie C. Saffer, Alexander Sardesai, Shashwat C. Schmiedekamp, Ann Schmiedekamp, Carl Schmitz, Kai Shapiro-Albert, Brent J. Siemens, Xavier Simon, Joseph Siwek, Magdalena S. Fiscella, Sophia V. Sosa Stairs, Ingrid H. Stinebring, Daniel R. Stovall, Kevin Susobhanan, Abhimanyu Swiggum, Joseph K. Taylor, Stephen R. Turner, Jacob E. Unal, Caner Vallisneri, Michele Vigeland, Sarah J. Wahl, Haley M. Witt, Caitlin A. Wright, David Young, Olivia High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Their analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks. After fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications. We use the replications to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients are extreme. We recover Hellings--Downs correlations in simulated data sets at significance levels consistent with the correlations measured in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. A similar test on spectral coefficients shows that their values in real data are not extreme compared to their distributions across replications. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2 $σ$ and 3 $σ$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background. |
| title | The NANOGrav 15 yr data set: Posterior predictive checks for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays |
| topic | High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.20510 |