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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Carmona, Rene, Sircar, Ronnie, Yang, Xinshuo
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
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Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.04830
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author Carmona, Rene
Sircar, Ronnie
Yang, Xinshuo
author_facet Carmona, Rene
Sircar, Ronnie
Yang, Xinshuo
contents This paper introduces a novel approach to addressing uncertainty and associated risks in power system management, focusing on the discrepancies between forecasted and actual values of load demand and renewable power generation. By employing Economic Dispatch (ED) with both day-ahead forecasts and actual values, we derive two distinct system costs, revealing the financial risks stemming from uncertainty. We present a numerical algorithm inspired by the Integrated Gradients (IG) method to attribute the contribution of stochastic components to the difference in system costs. This method, originally developed for machine learning, facilitates the understanding of individual input features' impact on the model's output prediction. By assigning numeric values to represent the influence of variability on operational costs, our method provides actionable insights for grid management. As an application, we propose a risk-averse unit commitment framework, leveraging our cost attribution algorithm to adjust the capacity of renewable generators, thus mitigating system risk. Simulation results on the RTS-GMLC grid demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in improving grid reliability and reducing operational costs.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2408_04830
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Cost Attribution And Risk-Averse Unit Commitment In Power Grids Using Integrated Gradient
Carmona, Rene
Sircar, Ronnie
Yang, Xinshuo
Optimization and Control
Numerical Analysis
93-08, 65D40, 65Y20
This paper introduces a novel approach to addressing uncertainty and associated risks in power system management, focusing on the discrepancies between forecasted and actual values of load demand and renewable power generation. By employing Economic Dispatch (ED) with both day-ahead forecasts and actual values, we derive two distinct system costs, revealing the financial risks stemming from uncertainty. We present a numerical algorithm inspired by the Integrated Gradients (IG) method to attribute the contribution of stochastic components to the difference in system costs. This method, originally developed for machine learning, facilitates the understanding of individual input features' impact on the model's output prediction. By assigning numeric values to represent the influence of variability on operational costs, our method provides actionable insights for grid management. As an application, we propose a risk-averse unit commitment framework, leveraging our cost attribution algorithm to adjust the capacity of renewable generators, thus mitigating system risk. Simulation results on the RTS-GMLC grid demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in improving grid reliability and reducing operational costs.
title Cost Attribution And Risk-Averse Unit Commitment In Power Grids Using Integrated Gradient
topic Optimization and Control
Numerical Analysis
93-08, 65D40, 65Y20
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.04830