A Comparative Study of Convolutional and Recurrent Neural Networks for Storm Surge Prediction in Tampa Bay
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866916353918631936 |
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| author | Ghahfarokhi, Mandana Farhang Sonbolestan, Seyed Hossein Zamanizadeh, Mahta |
| author_facet | Ghahfarokhi, Mandana Farhang Sonbolestan, Seyed Hossein Zamanizadeh, Mahta |
| contents | In this paper, we compare the performance of three common deep learning architectures, CNN-LSTM, LSTM, and 3D-CNN, in the context of surrogate storm surge modeling. The study site for this paper is the Tampa Bay area in Florida. Using high-resolution atmospheric data from the reanalysis models and historical water level data from NOAA tide stations, we trained and tested these models to evaluate their performance. Our findings indicate that the CNN-LSTM model outperforms the other architectures, achieving a test loss of 0.010 and an R-squared (R2) score of 0.84. The LSTM model, although it achieved the lowest training loss of 0.007 and the highest training R2 of 0.88, exhibited poorer generalization with a test loss of 0.014 and an R2 of 0.77. The 3D-CNN model showed reasonable performance with a test loss of 0.011 and an R2 of 0.82 but displayed instability under extreme conditions. A case study on Hurricane Ian, which caused a significant negative surge of -1.5 meters in Tampa Bay indicates the CNN-LSTM model's robustness and accuracy in extreme scenarios. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2408_05797 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Comparative Study of Convolutional and Recurrent Neural Networks for Storm Surge Prediction in Tampa Bay Ghahfarokhi, Mandana Farhang Sonbolestan, Seyed Hossein Zamanizadeh, Mahta Machine Learning Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics In this paper, we compare the performance of three common deep learning architectures, CNN-LSTM, LSTM, and 3D-CNN, in the context of surrogate storm surge modeling. The study site for this paper is the Tampa Bay area in Florida. Using high-resolution atmospheric data from the reanalysis models and historical water level data from NOAA tide stations, we trained and tested these models to evaluate their performance. Our findings indicate that the CNN-LSTM model outperforms the other architectures, achieving a test loss of 0.010 and an R-squared (R2) score of 0.84. The LSTM model, although it achieved the lowest training loss of 0.007 and the highest training R2 of 0.88, exhibited poorer generalization with a test loss of 0.014 and an R2 of 0.77. The 3D-CNN model showed reasonable performance with a test loss of 0.011 and an R2 of 0.82 but displayed instability under extreme conditions. A case study on Hurricane Ian, which caused a significant negative surge of -1.5 meters in Tampa Bay indicates the CNN-LSTM model's robustness and accuracy in extreme scenarios. |
| title | A Comparative Study of Convolutional and Recurrent Neural Networks for Storm Surge Prediction in Tampa Bay |
| topic | Machine Learning Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.05797 |