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Main Authors: Lee, Jaehoon, Lee, Hankook, Choi, Sungik, Cho, Sungjun, Lee, Moontae
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.09703
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author Lee, Jaehoon
Lee, Hankook
Choi, Sungik
Cho, Sungjun
Lee, Moontae
author_facet Lee, Jaehoon
Lee, Hankook
Choi, Sungik
Cho, Sungjun
Lee, Moontae
contents When solving forecasting problems including multiple time-series features, existing approaches often fall into two extreme categories, depending on whether to utilize inter-feature information: univariate and complete-multivariate models. Unlike univariate cases which ignore the information, complete-multivariate models compute relationships among a complete set of features. However, despite the potential advantage of leveraging the additional information, complete-multivariate models sometimes underperform univariate ones. Therefore, our research aims to explore a middle ground between these two by introducing what we term Partial-Multivariate models where a neural network captures only partial relationships, that is, dependencies within subsets of all features. To this end, we propose PMformer, a Transformer-based partial-multivariate model, with its training algorithm. We demonstrate that PMformer outperforms various univariate and complete-multivariate models, providing a theoretical rationale and empirical analysis for its superiority. Additionally, by proposing an inference technique for PMformer, the forecasting accuracy is further enhanced. Finally, we highlight other advantages of PMformer: efficiency and robustness under missing features.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2408_09703
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Partial-Multivariate Model for Forecasting
Lee, Jaehoon
Lee, Hankook
Choi, Sungik
Cho, Sungjun
Lee, Moontae
Artificial Intelligence
When solving forecasting problems including multiple time-series features, existing approaches often fall into two extreme categories, depending on whether to utilize inter-feature information: univariate and complete-multivariate models. Unlike univariate cases which ignore the information, complete-multivariate models compute relationships among a complete set of features. However, despite the potential advantage of leveraging the additional information, complete-multivariate models sometimes underperform univariate ones. Therefore, our research aims to explore a middle ground between these two by introducing what we term Partial-Multivariate models where a neural network captures only partial relationships, that is, dependencies within subsets of all features. To this end, we propose PMformer, a Transformer-based partial-multivariate model, with its training algorithm. We demonstrate that PMformer outperforms various univariate and complete-multivariate models, providing a theoretical rationale and empirical analysis for its superiority. Additionally, by proposing an inference technique for PMformer, the forecasting accuracy is further enhanced. Finally, we highlight other advantages of PMformer: efficiency and robustness under missing features.
title Partial-Multivariate Model for Forecasting
topic Artificial Intelligence
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.09703