Are KANs Effective for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting?
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866913685652373504 |
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| author | Han, Xiao Zhang, Xinfeng Wu, Yiling Zhang, Zhenduo Wu, Zhe |
| author_facet | Han, Xiao Zhang, Xinfeng Wu, Yiling Zhang, Zhenduo Wu, Zhe |
| contents | Multivariate time series forecasting is a crucial task that predicts the future states based on historical inputs. Related techniques have been developing in parallel with the machine learning community, from early statistical learning methods to current deep learning methods. Despite their significant advancements, existing methods continue to struggle with the challenge of inadequate interpretability. The rise of the Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) provides a new perspective to solve this challenge, but current work has not yet concluded whether KAN is effective in time series forecasting tasks. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the effectiveness of KANs in time-series forecasting from the perspectives of performance, integrability, efficiency, and interpretability. To this end, we propose the Multi-layer Mixture-of-KAN network (MMK), which achieves excellent performance while retaining KAN's ability to be transformed into a combination of symbolic functions. The core module of MMK is the mixture-of-KAN layer, which uses a mixture-of-experts structure to assign variables to best-matched KAN experts. Then, we explore some useful experimental strategies to deal with the issues in the training stage. Finally, we compare MMK and various baselines on seven datasets. Extensive experimental and visualization results demonstrate that KANs are effective in multivariate time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/2448845600/EasyTSF. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2408_11306 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Are KANs Effective for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting? Han, Xiao Zhang, Xinfeng Wu, Yiling Zhang, Zhenduo Wu, Zhe Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Multivariate time series forecasting is a crucial task that predicts the future states based on historical inputs. Related techniques have been developing in parallel with the machine learning community, from early statistical learning methods to current deep learning methods. Despite their significant advancements, existing methods continue to struggle with the challenge of inadequate interpretability. The rise of the Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) provides a new perspective to solve this challenge, but current work has not yet concluded whether KAN is effective in time series forecasting tasks. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the effectiveness of KANs in time-series forecasting from the perspectives of performance, integrability, efficiency, and interpretability. To this end, we propose the Multi-layer Mixture-of-KAN network (MMK), which achieves excellent performance while retaining KAN's ability to be transformed into a combination of symbolic functions. The core module of MMK is the mixture-of-KAN layer, which uses a mixture-of-experts structure to assign variables to best-matched KAN experts. Then, we explore some useful experimental strategies to deal with the issues in the training stage. Finally, we compare MMK and various baselines on seven datasets. Extensive experimental and visualization results demonstrate that KANs are effective in multivariate time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/2448845600/EasyTSF. |
| title | Are KANs Effective for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting? |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.11306 |