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| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2024
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| Online-Zugang: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.13392 |
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| _version_ | 1866915421869834240 |
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| author | Garrett, Robert Shand, Lyndsay Huerta, J. Gabriel |
| author_facet | Garrett, Robert Shand, Lyndsay Huerta, J. Gabriel |
| contents | The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is caste in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such model is advantageous over univariate models. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2408_13392 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Multivariate Space-Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt Pinatubo Eruptio Garrett, Robert Shand, Lyndsay Huerta, J. Gabriel Applications The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is caste in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such model is advantageous over univariate models. |
| title | A Multivariate Space-Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt Pinatubo Eruptio |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.13392 |