Simulating the Evolution of Lethal Non-Trackable Population and its Effect on LEO Sustainability
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866917759823118336 |
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| author | Jang, Daniel Linares, Richard |
| author_facet | Jang, Daniel Linares, Richard |
| contents | The vast majority of the orbital population today is unobservable and untracked because of their small size. These lethal non-trackable objects will only become more numerous as more payloads and debris are launched into orbit and increase the collision rate. In this paper, the long-term effect of collisions is simulated with an efficient Monte-Carlo method to simulate the future LEO environment including lethal non-trackable objects, which is typically ignored due to the large computational resources required. The results show that simulations that do not incorporate lethal non-trackable debris would be omitting a large number of debilitating collisions with active payloads and catastrophic collisions to a smaller effect. This shows the importance of simulating small debris in the long-term evolution of the orbital population, which is often omitted in the literature. This increased debris population and consequentially the risk to orbital payloads diminishes as smaller lethal non-trackable objects are considered. An efficient and validated model is used to simulate these numerous small objects. Several future cases such as launches of registered megaconstellations, improved post-mission disposal rates and no-future launches are explored to understand the effect of the inclusion or exclusion of lethal non-trackable objects. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2408_15025 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Simulating the Evolution of Lethal Non-Trackable Population and its Effect on LEO Sustainability Jang, Daniel Linares, Richard Earth and Planetary Astrophysics Space Physics The vast majority of the orbital population today is unobservable and untracked because of their small size. These lethal non-trackable objects will only become more numerous as more payloads and debris are launched into orbit and increase the collision rate. In this paper, the long-term effect of collisions is simulated with an efficient Monte-Carlo method to simulate the future LEO environment including lethal non-trackable objects, which is typically ignored due to the large computational resources required. The results show that simulations that do not incorporate lethal non-trackable debris would be omitting a large number of debilitating collisions with active payloads and catastrophic collisions to a smaller effect. This shows the importance of simulating small debris in the long-term evolution of the orbital population, which is often omitted in the literature. This increased debris population and consequentially the risk to orbital payloads diminishes as smaller lethal non-trackable objects are considered. An efficient and validated model is used to simulate these numerous small objects. Several future cases such as launches of registered megaconstellations, improved post-mission disposal rates and no-future launches are explored to understand the effect of the inclusion or exclusion of lethal non-trackable objects. |
| title | Simulating the Evolution of Lethal Non-Trackable Population and its Effect on LEO Sustainability |
| topic | Earth and Planetary Astrophysics Space Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.15025 |