From Bytes to Bites: Using Country Specific Machine Learning Models to Predict Famine
Fuente:
arXiv
Enregistré dans:
| Auteurs principaux: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2024
|
| Sujets: | |
| Accès en ligne: | |
| Tags: |
Ajouter un tag
Pas de tags, Soyez le premier à ajouter un tag!
|
| _version_ | 1866929500744318976 |
|---|---|
| author | Kapoor, Salloni Sayer, Simeon |
| author_facet | Kapoor, Salloni Sayer, Simeon |
| contents | Hunger crises are critical global issues affecting millions, particularly in low-income and developing countries. This research investigates how machine learning can be utilized to predict and inform decisions regarding famine and hunger crises. By leveraging a diverse set of variables (natural, economic, and conflict-related), three machine learning models (Linear Regression, XGBoost, and RandomForestRegressor) were employed to predict food consumption scores, a key indicator of household nutrition. The RandomForestRegressor emerged as the most accurate model, with an average prediction error of 10.6%, though accuracy varied significantly across countries, ranging from 2% to over 30%. Notably, economic indicators were consistently the most significant predictors of average household nutrition, while no single feature dominated across all regions, underscoring the necessity for comprehensive data collection and tailored, country-specific models. These findings highlight the potential of machine learning, particularly Random Forests, to enhance famine prediction, suggesting that continued research and improved data gathering are essential for more effective global hunger forecasting. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2409_09980 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | From Bytes to Bites: Using Country Specific Machine Learning Models to Predict Famine Kapoor, Salloni Sayer, Simeon Machine Learning Hunger crises are critical global issues affecting millions, particularly in low-income and developing countries. This research investigates how machine learning can be utilized to predict and inform decisions regarding famine and hunger crises. By leveraging a diverse set of variables (natural, economic, and conflict-related), three machine learning models (Linear Regression, XGBoost, and RandomForestRegressor) were employed to predict food consumption scores, a key indicator of household nutrition. The RandomForestRegressor emerged as the most accurate model, with an average prediction error of 10.6%, though accuracy varied significantly across countries, ranging from 2% to over 30%. Notably, economic indicators were consistently the most significant predictors of average household nutrition, while no single feature dominated across all regions, underscoring the necessity for comprehensive data collection and tailored, country-specific models. These findings highlight the potential of machine learning, particularly Random Forests, to enhance famine prediction, suggesting that continued research and improved data gathering are essential for more effective global hunger forecasting. |
| title | From Bytes to Bites: Using Country Specific Machine Learning Models to Predict Famine |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.09980 |