Kalman tracking and parameter estimation of continuous gravitational waves with a pulsar timing array

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Hauptverfasser: Kimpson, Tom, Melatos, Andrew, O'Leary, Joseph, Carlin, Julian B., Evans, Robin J., Moran, William, Cheunchitra, Tong, Dong, Wenhao, Dunn, Liam, Greentree, Julian, O'Neill, Nicholas J., Suvorova, Sofia, Thong, Kok Hong, Vargas, Andrés F.
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Veröffentlicht: 2024
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author Kimpson, Tom
Melatos, Andrew
O'Leary, Joseph
Carlin, Julian B.
Evans, Robin J.
Moran, William
Cheunchitra, Tong
Dong, Wenhao
Dunn, Liam
Greentree, Julian
O'Neill, Nicholas J.
Suvorova, Sofia
Thong, Kok Hong
Vargas, Andrés F.
author_facet Kimpson, Tom
Melatos, Andrew
O'Leary, Joseph
Carlin, Julian B.
Evans, Robin J.
Moran, William
Cheunchitra, Tong
Dong, Wenhao
Dunn, Liam
Greentree, Julian
O'Neill, Nicholas J.
Suvorova, Sofia
Thong, Kok Hong
Vargas, Andrés F.
contents Continuous nanohertz gravitational waves from individual supermassive black hole binaries may be detectable with pulsar timing arrays. A novel search strategy is developed, wherein intrinsic achromatic spin wandering is tracked simultaneously with the modulation induced by a single gravitational wave source in the pulse times of arrival. A two-step inference procedure is applied within a state-space framework, such that the modulation is tracked with a Kalman filter, which then provides a likelihood for nested sampling. The procedure estimates the static parameters in the problem, such as the sky position of the source, without fitting for ensemble-averaged statistics such as the power spectral density of the timing noise, and therefore complements traditional parameter estimation methods. It also returns the Bayes factor relating a model with a single gravitational wave source to one without, complementing traditional detection methods. It is shown via astrophysically representative software injections in Gaussian measurement noise that the procedure distinguishes a gravitational wave from pure noise down to a characteristic wave strain of $h_0 \approx 2 \times 10^{-15}$. Full posterior distributions of model parameters are recovered and tested for accuracy. There is a bias of $\approx 0.3$ rad in the marginalised one-dimensional posterior for the orbital inclination $ι$, introduced by dropping the so-called `pulsar terms'. Smaller biases $\lesssim 10 \%$ are also observed in other static parameters.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2409_14613
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Kalman tracking and parameter estimation of continuous gravitational waves with a pulsar timing array
Kimpson, Tom
Melatos, Andrew
O'Leary, Joseph
Carlin, Julian B.
Evans, Robin J.
Moran, William
Cheunchitra, Tong
Dong, Wenhao
Dunn, Liam
Greentree, Julian
O'Neill, Nicholas J.
Suvorova, Sofia
Thong, Kok Hong
Vargas, Andrés F.
High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena
General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology
Continuous nanohertz gravitational waves from individual supermassive black hole binaries may be detectable with pulsar timing arrays. A novel search strategy is developed, wherein intrinsic achromatic spin wandering is tracked simultaneously with the modulation induced by a single gravitational wave source in the pulse times of arrival. A two-step inference procedure is applied within a state-space framework, such that the modulation is tracked with a Kalman filter, which then provides a likelihood for nested sampling. The procedure estimates the static parameters in the problem, such as the sky position of the source, without fitting for ensemble-averaged statistics such as the power spectral density of the timing noise, and therefore complements traditional parameter estimation methods. It also returns the Bayes factor relating a model with a single gravitational wave source to one without, complementing traditional detection methods. It is shown via astrophysically representative software injections in Gaussian measurement noise that the procedure distinguishes a gravitational wave from pure noise down to a characteristic wave strain of $h_0 \approx 2 \times 10^{-15}$. Full posterior distributions of model parameters are recovered and tested for accuracy. There is a bias of $\approx 0.3$ rad in the marginalised one-dimensional posterior for the orbital inclination $ι$, introduced by dropping the so-called `pulsar terms'. Smaller biases $\lesssim 10 \%$ are also observed in other static parameters.
title Kalman tracking and parameter estimation of continuous gravitational waves with a pulsar timing array
topic High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena
General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.14613