Incorporating sparse labels into hidden Markov models using weighted likelihoods improves accuracy and interpretability in biologging studies

Fuente: arXiv
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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Sidrow, Evan, Heckman, Nancy, McRae, Tess M., Volpov, Beth L., Trites, Andrew W., Fortune, Sarah M. E., Auger-Méthé, Marie
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
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author Sidrow, Evan
Heckman, Nancy
McRae, Tess M.
Volpov, Beth L.
Trites, Andrew W.
Fortune, Sarah M. E.
Auger-Méthé, Marie
author_facet Sidrow, Evan
Heckman, Nancy
McRae, Tess M.
Volpov, Beth L.
Trites, Andrew W.
Fortune, Sarah M. E.
Auger-Méthé, Marie
contents Ecologists often use a hidden Markov model to decode a latent process, such as a sequence of an animal's behaviours, from an observed biologging time series. Modern technological devices such as video recorders and drones now allow researchers to directly observe an animal's behaviour. Using these observations as labels of the latent process can improve a hidden Markov model's accuracy when decoding the latent process. However, many wild animals are observed infrequently. Including such rare labels often has a negligible influence on parameter estimates, which in turn does not meaningfully improve the accuracy of the decoded latent process. We introduce a weighted likelihood approach that increases the relative influence of labelled observations. We use this approach to develop two hidden Markov models to decode the foraging behaviour of killer whales (Orcinus orca) off the coast of British Columbia, Canada. Using cross-validated evaluation metrics, we show that our weighted likelihood approach produces more accurate and understandable decoded latent processes compared to existing methods. Thus, our method effectively leverages sparse labels to enhance researchers' ability to accurately decode hidden processes across various fields.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2409_18091
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Incorporating sparse labels into hidden Markov models using weighted likelihoods improves accuracy and interpretability in biologging studies
Sidrow, Evan
Heckman, Nancy
McRae, Tess M.
Volpov, Beth L.
Trites, Andrew W.
Fortune, Sarah M. E.
Auger-Méthé, Marie
Methodology
Applications
Ecologists often use a hidden Markov model to decode a latent process, such as a sequence of an animal's behaviours, from an observed biologging time series. Modern technological devices such as video recorders and drones now allow researchers to directly observe an animal's behaviour. Using these observations as labels of the latent process can improve a hidden Markov model's accuracy when decoding the latent process. However, many wild animals are observed infrequently. Including such rare labels often has a negligible influence on parameter estimates, which in turn does not meaningfully improve the accuracy of the decoded latent process. We introduce a weighted likelihood approach that increases the relative influence of labelled observations. We use this approach to develop two hidden Markov models to decode the foraging behaviour of killer whales (Orcinus orca) off the coast of British Columbia, Canada. Using cross-validated evaluation metrics, we show that our weighted likelihood approach produces more accurate and understandable decoded latent processes compared to existing methods. Thus, our method effectively leverages sparse labels to enhance researchers' ability to accurately decode hidden processes across various fields.
title Incorporating sparse labels into hidden Markov models using weighted likelihoods improves accuracy and interpretability in biologging studies
topic Methodology
Applications
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.18091