Stochastic quasi-cycles as a simple explanation for the time evolution of the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine ecological reserve
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866911665171202048 |
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| author | Parra-Rojas, César Fanelli, Duccio McKane, Alan J. |
| author_facet | Parra-Rojas, César Fanelli, Duccio McKane, Alan J. |
| contents | The dataset collected at the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine (CR-OPM) reserve on the North Island of New Zealand is rather unique. It describes the cyclic time evolution of a rocky intertidal community, with the relative abundances of the various coastal species that have been meticulously monitored for more than 20 years. Past theoretical studies, anchored on a deterministic description, required invoking ad hoc mechanisms to reproduce the observed dynamical paths. Following a maximum likelihood approach to interpolate individual stochastic trajectories, we here propose quasi-cycles as an alternative and simpler mechanism to explain the oscillations observed in the population numbers of the ecosystem. From a general standpoint, we also show that it is possible to return conclusive evidence on the existence of stochastic quasi-cycles, without resorting to global fitting strategies which necessitate handling a large collection of independent replicas of the dynamics, a possibility that is often precluded in real life applications. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2409_19378 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Stochastic quasi-cycles as a simple explanation for the time evolution of the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine ecological reserve Parra-Rojas, César Fanelli, Duccio McKane, Alan J. Populations and Evolution Disordered Systems and Neural Networks Statistical Mechanics The dataset collected at the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine (CR-OPM) reserve on the North Island of New Zealand is rather unique. It describes the cyclic time evolution of a rocky intertidal community, with the relative abundances of the various coastal species that have been meticulously monitored for more than 20 years. Past theoretical studies, anchored on a deterministic description, required invoking ad hoc mechanisms to reproduce the observed dynamical paths. Following a maximum likelihood approach to interpolate individual stochastic trajectories, we here propose quasi-cycles as an alternative and simpler mechanism to explain the oscillations observed in the population numbers of the ecosystem. From a general standpoint, we also show that it is possible to return conclusive evidence on the existence of stochastic quasi-cycles, without resorting to global fitting strategies which necessitate handling a large collection of independent replicas of the dynamics, a possibility that is often precluded in real life applications. |
| title | Stochastic quasi-cycles as a simple explanation for the time evolution of the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine ecological reserve |
| topic | Populations and Evolution Disordered Systems and Neural Networks Statistical Mechanics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.19378 |