Opinion-driven risk perception and reaction in SIS epidemics
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2024
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| author | Arango, Marcela Ordorica Bizyaeva, Anastasia Levin, Simon A. Leonard, Naomi Ehrich |
| author_facet | Arango, Marcela Ordorica Bizyaeva, Anastasia Levin, Simon A. Leonard, Naomi Ehrich |
| contents | We present and analyze a mathematical model to study the feedback between behavior and epidemic spread in a population that is actively assessing and reacting to risk of infection. In our model, a population dynamically forms an opinion that reflects its willingness to engage in risky behavior (e.g., not wearing a mask in a crowded area) or reduce it (e.g., social distancing). We consider SIS epidemic dynamics in which the contact rate within a population adapts as a function of its opinion. For the new coupled model, we prove the existence of two distinct parameter regimes. One regime corresponds to a low baseline infectiousness, and the equilibria of the epidemic spread are identical to those of the standard SIS model. The other regime corresponds to a high baseline infectiousness, and there is a bistability between two new endemic equilibria that reflect an initial preference towards either risk seeking behavior or risk aversion. We prove that risk seeking behavior increases the steady-state infection level in the population compared to the baseline SIS model, whereas risk aversion decreases it. When a population is highly reactive to extreme opinions, we show how risk aversion enables the complete eradication of infection in the population. Extensions of the model to a network of populations or individuals are explored numerically. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2410_12993 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Opinion-driven risk perception and reaction in SIS epidemics Arango, Marcela Ordorica Bizyaeva, Anastasia Levin, Simon A. Leonard, Naomi Ehrich Dynamical Systems Physics and Society Populations and Evolution We present and analyze a mathematical model to study the feedback between behavior and epidemic spread in a population that is actively assessing and reacting to risk of infection. In our model, a population dynamically forms an opinion that reflects its willingness to engage in risky behavior (e.g., not wearing a mask in a crowded area) or reduce it (e.g., social distancing). We consider SIS epidemic dynamics in which the contact rate within a population adapts as a function of its opinion. For the new coupled model, we prove the existence of two distinct parameter regimes. One regime corresponds to a low baseline infectiousness, and the equilibria of the epidemic spread are identical to those of the standard SIS model. The other regime corresponds to a high baseline infectiousness, and there is a bistability between two new endemic equilibria that reflect an initial preference towards either risk seeking behavior or risk aversion. We prove that risk seeking behavior increases the steady-state infection level in the population compared to the baseline SIS model, whereas risk aversion decreases it. When a population is highly reactive to extreme opinions, we show how risk aversion enables the complete eradication of infection in the population. Extensions of the model to a network of populations or individuals are explored numerically. |
| title | Opinion-driven risk perception and reaction in SIS epidemics |
| topic | Dynamical Systems Physics and Society Populations and Evolution |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.12993 |