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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.13115 |
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| _version_ | 1866911414758670336 |
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| author | Wang, Xiaoqian Hyndman, Rob J |
| author_facet | Wang, Xiaoqian Hyndman, Rob J |
| contents | We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction intervals for multi-step time series forecasting, with a focus on the temporal dependencies inherent in multi-step forecast errors. We establish that the optimal $h$-step-ahead forecast errors exhibit serial correlation up to lag $(h-1)$ under a general non-stationary autoregressive data generating process. To leverage these properties, we propose the Autocorrelated Multi-step Conformal Prediction (AcMCP) method, which effectively incorporates autocorrelations in multi-step forecast errors, resulting in more statistically efficient prediction intervals. This method guarantees asymptotic marginal coverage for multi-step prediction intervals, though we note that, for finite samples, the coverage error admits an upper bound that increases with the forecasting horizon. Additionally, we extend several easy-to-implement conformal prediction methods, originally designed for single-step forecasting, to accommodate multi-step scenarios. Through empirical evaluations, including simulations and applications to data, we demonstrate that AcMCP achieves coverage that closely aligns with the target within local windows, while providing adaptive prediction intervals that effectively respond to varying conditions. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2410_13115 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Online conformal inference for multi-step time series forecasting Wang, Xiaoqian Hyndman, Rob J Methodology We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction intervals for multi-step time series forecasting, with a focus on the temporal dependencies inherent in multi-step forecast errors. We establish that the optimal $h$-step-ahead forecast errors exhibit serial correlation up to lag $(h-1)$ under a general non-stationary autoregressive data generating process. To leverage these properties, we propose the Autocorrelated Multi-step Conformal Prediction (AcMCP) method, which effectively incorporates autocorrelations in multi-step forecast errors, resulting in more statistically efficient prediction intervals. This method guarantees asymptotic marginal coverage for multi-step prediction intervals, though we note that, for finite samples, the coverage error admits an upper bound that increases with the forecasting horizon. Additionally, we extend several easy-to-implement conformal prediction methods, originally designed for single-step forecasting, to accommodate multi-step scenarios. Through empirical evaluations, including simulations and applications to data, we demonstrate that AcMCP achieves coverage that closely aligns with the target within local windows, while providing adaptive prediction intervals that effectively respond to varying conditions. |
| title | Online conformal inference for multi-step time series forecasting |
| topic | Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.13115 |