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Main Authors: Davis IV, Warren L., Carlson, Max, Tezaur, Irina, Bull, Diana, Peterson, Kara, Swiler, Laura
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.16544
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author Davis IV, Warren L.
Carlson, Max
Tezaur, Irina
Bull, Diana
Peterson, Kara
Swiler, Laura
author_facet Davis IV, Warren L.
Carlson, Max
Tezaur, Irina
Bull, Diana
Peterson, Kara
Swiler, Laura
contents Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. This paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2410_16544
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Spatio-temporal Multivariate Cluster Evolution Analysis for Detecting and Tracking Climate Impacts
Davis IV, Warren L.
Carlson, Max
Tezaur, Irina
Bull, Diana
Peterson, Kara
Swiler, Laura
Machine Learning
Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. This paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).
title Spatio-temporal Multivariate Cluster Evolution Analysis for Detecting and Tracking Climate Impacts
topic Machine Learning
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.16544