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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2024
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| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.18988 |
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| _version_ | 1866913563408334848 |
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| author | Bock, Joel R. |
| author_facet | Bock, Joel R. |
| contents | This paper describes experiments on fine-tuning a small language model to generate forecasts of long-horizon stock price movements. Inputs to the model are narrative text from 10-K reports of large market capitalization companies in the S&P 500 index; the output is a forward-looking buy or sell decision. Price direction is predicted at discrete horizons up to 12 months after the report filing date. The results reported here demonstrate good out-of-sample statistical performance (F1-macro= 0.62) at medium to long investment horizons. In particular, the buy signals generated from 10-K text are found most precise at 6 and 9 months in the future. As measured by the F1 score, the buy signal provides between 4.8 and 9 percent improvement against a random stock selection model. In contrast, sell signals generated by the models do not perform well. This may be attributed to the highly imbalanced out-of-sample data, or perhaps due to management drafting annual reports with a bias toward positive language. Cross-sectional analysis of performance by economic sector suggests that idiosyncratic reporting styles within industries are correlated with varying degrees and time scales of price movement predictability. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2410_18988 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Generating long-horizon stock "buy" signals with a neural language model Bock, Joel R. Statistical Finance General Economics Economics This paper describes experiments on fine-tuning a small language model to generate forecasts of long-horizon stock price movements. Inputs to the model are narrative text from 10-K reports of large market capitalization companies in the S&P 500 index; the output is a forward-looking buy or sell decision. Price direction is predicted at discrete horizons up to 12 months after the report filing date. The results reported here demonstrate good out-of-sample statistical performance (F1-macro= 0.62) at medium to long investment horizons. In particular, the buy signals generated from 10-K text are found most precise at 6 and 9 months in the future. As measured by the F1 score, the buy signal provides between 4.8 and 9 percent improvement against a random stock selection model. In contrast, sell signals generated by the models do not perform well. This may be attributed to the highly imbalanced out-of-sample data, or perhaps due to management drafting annual reports with a bias toward positive language. Cross-sectional analysis of performance by economic sector suggests that idiosyncratic reporting styles within industries are correlated with varying degrees and time scales of price movement predictability. |
| title | Generating long-horizon stock "buy" signals with a neural language model |
| topic | Statistical Finance General Economics Economics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.18988 |