Deciphering culprits for cyanobacterial blooms and lake vulnerability in north-temperate lakes
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2024
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| _version_ | 1866910997099315200 |
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| author | Serpico, Jacob Zambrano-Luna, B. A. Milne, Russell Heggerud, Christopher M. Hastings, Alan Wang, Hao |
| author_facet | Serpico, Jacob Zambrano-Luna, B. A. Milne, Russell Heggerud, Christopher M. Hastings, Alan Wang, Hao |
| contents | Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (CBs) are increasingly prevalent worldwide, posing significant environmental and health concerns. We derive a stoichiometric model describing the population dynamics and toxicity of cyanobacteria in north-temperate freshwater ecosystems. Our model quantifies the hypoxic effects of CBs on fish mortality and evaluates the impact of microcystin-LR (MC-LR) on aquatic macro-invertebrates, phytoplankton, and fish species. Analyzing data from diverse north-temperate lakes with varying physical characteristics, we identify eutrophication as a pivotal catalyst in bloom proliferation. Under predicted warming scenarios coupled with increased eutrophication, peak MC-LR concentrations will surge dramatically, and blooms will occur earlier in the year. We uncover severe bioaccumulation of MC-LR in higher trophic species; the response to CBs among fish at intermediate trophic levels was heterogeneous across lakes. We compare our model against observations from several north-temperate lakes, demonstrating its robustness and applicability. Our insights are critical for informing targeted interventions to mitigate CBs. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2410_20757 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Deciphering culprits for cyanobacterial blooms and lake vulnerability in north-temperate lakes Serpico, Jacob Zambrano-Luna, B. A. Milne, Russell Heggerud, Christopher M. Hastings, Alan Wang, Hao Dynamical Systems Numerical Analysis Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (CBs) are increasingly prevalent worldwide, posing significant environmental and health concerns. We derive a stoichiometric model describing the population dynamics and toxicity of cyanobacteria in north-temperate freshwater ecosystems. Our model quantifies the hypoxic effects of CBs on fish mortality and evaluates the impact of microcystin-LR (MC-LR) on aquatic macro-invertebrates, phytoplankton, and fish species. Analyzing data from diverse north-temperate lakes with varying physical characteristics, we identify eutrophication as a pivotal catalyst in bloom proliferation. Under predicted warming scenarios coupled with increased eutrophication, peak MC-LR concentrations will surge dramatically, and blooms will occur earlier in the year. We uncover severe bioaccumulation of MC-LR in higher trophic species; the response to CBs among fish at intermediate trophic levels was heterogeneous across lakes. We compare our model against observations from several north-temperate lakes, demonstrating its robustness and applicability. Our insights are critical for informing targeted interventions to mitigate CBs. |
| title | Deciphering culprits for cyanobacterial blooms and lake vulnerability in north-temperate lakes |
| topic | Dynamical Systems Numerical Analysis |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.20757 |