Earthquakes big and small: same physics, different boundary conditions
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arXiv
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866909376955023360 |
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| author | Nielsen, Stefan |
| author_facet | Nielsen, Stefan |
| contents | Self-similarity indicates that large and small earthquakes share the same physics, where all variables scale with rupture length $L$. Here I show that rupture tip acceleration during the start of dynamic rupture (break-out phase) is also self-similar, scaling with $L_c$ in space and $L_c/C_{lim}$ in time (where $L_c$ is the breakout patch length and $C_{lim}$ the limiting rupture velocity in the subsonic regime). Rupture acceleration in the breakout phase is slower for larger initial breakout patches $L_c$. Because small faults cannot host large breakout patches, a large and slower initial breakout may be indicative of a potentially large final earthquake magnitude. Initial moment rate $\dot{M}_o$ also grows slower for larger $L_c$, therefore it may reflect fault dimensions and carry a probabilistic forecast of magnitude as suggested in some Early Warning studies. This result does not violate causality and is fully compatible with the shared fundamental, self-similar physics across all the magnitude spectrum. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2411_00544 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Earthquakes big and small: same physics, different boundary conditions Nielsen, Stefan Geophysics Self-similarity indicates that large and small earthquakes share the same physics, where all variables scale with rupture length $L$. Here I show that rupture tip acceleration during the start of dynamic rupture (break-out phase) is also self-similar, scaling with $L_c$ in space and $L_c/C_{lim}$ in time (where $L_c$ is the breakout patch length and $C_{lim}$ the limiting rupture velocity in the subsonic regime). Rupture acceleration in the breakout phase is slower for larger initial breakout patches $L_c$. Because small faults cannot host large breakout patches, a large and slower initial breakout may be indicative of a potentially large final earthquake magnitude. Initial moment rate $\dot{M}_o$ also grows slower for larger $L_c$, therefore it may reflect fault dimensions and carry a probabilistic forecast of magnitude as suggested in some Early Warning studies. This result does not violate causality and is fully compatible with the shared fundamental, self-similar physics across all the magnitude spectrum. |
| title | Earthquakes big and small: same physics, different boundary conditions |
| topic | Geophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.00544 |