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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2024
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| Online-Zugang: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.02240 |
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| _version_ | 1866913571257974784 |
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| author | Biswas, Soumyajyoti Sen, Parongama Thota, Bhargav Kodali, Hemanth Datta, I. Vinay Akash, K. Madhu Venkata |
| author_facet | Biswas, Soumyajyoti Sen, Parongama Thota, Bhargav Kodali, Hemanth Datta, I. Vinay Akash, K. Madhu Venkata |
| contents | The strongly polarizing political discourse in the U. S. implies that a small minority of the population, determining the outcome of the presidential elections in a few so called battleground-states, also determines the outcome of the overall election. Given the almost equal distributions of the electoral college members in the so-called blue and red states, the members elected from these battleground states would determine the election results. We build a kinetic exchange opinion model that takes into account the dynamical nature of the opinions of the individuals in the battleground states and the already determined core voters of the non-battleground states. In a fully connected graph, we consider the interaction among the population in the battleground states while the agents in the non-battleground states are assumed to have fixed opinions. We provide the analytical results and numerical simulations using realistic parameters from the opinion poll of the previous election's data. Counter-intuitively, a more noisy environment predicts a higher chance of the Democrats' win. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2411_02240 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Kinetic exchange opinion dynamics for the battleground-states in the 2024 US presidential elections Biswas, Soumyajyoti Sen, Parongama Thota, Bhargav Kodali, Hemanth Datta, I. Vinay Akash, K. Madhu Venkata Physics and Society The strongly polarizing political discourse in the U. S. implies that a small minority of the population, determining the outcome of the presidential elections in a few so called battleground-states, also determines the outcome of the overall election. Given the almost equal distributions of the electoral college members in the so-called blue and red states, the members elected from these battleground states would determine the election results. We build a kinetic exchange opinion model that takes into account the dynamical nature of the opinions of the individuals in the battleground states and the already determined core voters of the non-battleground states. In a fully connected graph, we consider the interaction among the population in the battleground states while the agents in the non-battleground states are assumed to have fixed opinions. We provide the analytical results and numerical simulations using realistic parameters from the opinion poll of the previous election's data. Counter-intuitively, a more noisy environment predicts a higher chance of the Democrats' win. |
| title | Kinetic exchange opinion dynamics for the battleground-states in the 2024 US presidential elections |
| topic | Physics and Society |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.02240 |