Striking a Balance: Evaluating How Aggregations of Multiple Forecasts Impact Judgment Under Uncertainty
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866908792497635328 |
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| author | Zou, Ruishi Wu, Siyi Fygenson, Racquel Yao, Bingsheng Wang, Dakuo Padilla, Lace |
| author_facet | Zou, Ruishi Wu, Siyi Fygenson, Racquel Yao, Bingsheng Wang, Dakuo Padilla, Lace |
| contents | Decision-makers consult multiple forecasts to account for uncertainties when forming judgments about future events. While prior works have compared unaggregated and highly-aggregated designs for displaying multiple forecasts (e.g., Multiple Forecast Visualizations versus confidence interval plots), it remains unclear how partial aggregation impacts judgment. To investigate the effect of partial aggregation, we curated three designs that partially aggregate multiple forecasts. Through two large-scale studies (Experiment 1 n = 695 and Experiment 2 n = 389) across 14 judgment-related metrics, we observed that one design (Horizon Sampled MFV) significantly enhanced participants' ability to predict future trends, thereby reducing their surprise when confronted with the actual outcomes. Grounded in empirical evidence, we provide insights into how to design visualizations for multiple forecasts to communicate uncertainty more effectively. Specifically, since no approach excels in all metrics, we advise choosing different designs based on communication goals and prior knowledge of forecasts. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2411_02576 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Striking a Balance: Evaluating How Aggregations of Multiple Forecasts Impact Judgment Under Uncertainty Zou, Ruishi Wu, Siyi Fygenson, Racquel Yao, Bingsheng Wang, Dakuo Padilla, Lace Human-Computer Interaction Decision-makers consult multiple forecasts to account for uncertainties when forming judgments about future events. While prior works have compared unaggregated and highly-aggregated designs for displaying multiple forecasts (e.g., Multiple Forecast Visualizations versus confidence interval plots), it remains unclear how partial aggregation impacts judgment. To investigate the effect of partial aggregation, we curated three designs that partially aggregate multiple forecasts. Through two large-scale studies (Experiment 1 n = 695 and Experiment 2 n = 389) across 14 judgment-related metrics, we observed that one design (Horizon Sampled MFV) significantly enhanced participants' ability to predict future trends, thereby reducing their surprise when confronted with the actual outcomes. Grounded in empirical evidence, we provide insights into how to design visualizations for multiple forecasts to communicate uncertainty more effectively. Specifically, since no approach excels in all metrics, we advise choosing different designs based on communication goals and prior knowledge of forecasts. |
| title | Striking a Balance: Evaluating How Aggregations of Multiple Forecasts Impact Judgment Under Uncertainty |
| topic | Human-Computer Interaction |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.02576 |