Multi-Scale Temporal Analysis for Failure Prediction in Energy Systems

Fuente: arXiv
Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Le, Anh, Huynh, Phat K., Yadav, Om P., Le, Chau, Pirim, Harun, Le, Trung Q.
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
Subjects:
Online Access:
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1866909377848410112
author Le, Anh
Huynh, Phat K.
Yadav, Om P.
Le, Chau
Pirim, Harun
Le, Trung Q.
author_facet Le, Anh
Huynh, Phat K.
Yadav, Om P.
Le, Chau
Pirim, Harun
Le, Trung Q.
contents Many existing models struggle to predict nonlinear behavior during extreme weather conditions. This study proposes a multi-scale temporal analysis for failure prediction in energy systems using PMU data. The model integrates multi-scale analysis with machine learning to capture both short-term and long-term behavior. PMU data lacks labeled states despite logged failure records, making it difficult to distinguish between normal and disturbance conditions. We address this through: (1) Extracting domain features from PMU time series data; (2) Applying multi-scale windows (30s, 60s, 180s) for pattern detection; (3) Using Recursive Feature Elimination to identify key features; (4) Training multiple machine learning models. Key contributions: Identifying significant features across multi-scale windows; Demonstrating LightGBM's superior performance (0.896 precision); Showing multi-scale analysis outperforms single-window models (0.841). Our work focuses on weather-related failures, with plans to extend to equipment failure and lightning events.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2411_02857
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Multi-Scale Temporal Analysis for Failure Prediction in Energy Systems
Le, Anh
Huynh, Phat K.
Yadav, Om P.
Le, Chau
Pirim, Harun
Le, Trung Q.
Signal Processing
Many existing models struggle to predict nonlinear behavior during extreme weather conditions. This study proposes a multi-scale temporal analysis for failure prediction in energy systems using PMU data. The model integrates multi-scale analysis with machine learning to capture both short-term and long-term behavior. PMU data lacks labeled states despite logged failure records, making it difficult to distinguish between normal and disturbance conditions. We address this through: (1) Extracting domain features from PMU time series data; (2) Applying multi-scale windows (30s, 60s, 180s) for pattern detection; (3) Using Recursive Feature Elimination to identify key features; (4) Training multiple machine learning models. Key contributions: Identifying significant features across multi-scale windows; Demonstrating LightGBM's superior performance (0.896 precision); Showing multi-scale analysis outperforms single-window models (0.841). Our work focuses on weather-related failures, with plans to extend to equipment failure and lightning events.
title Multi-Scale Temporal Analysis for Failure Prediction in Energy Systems
topic Signal Processing
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.02857