Testing Generalizability in Causal Inference

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: Manela, Daniel de Vassimon, Yang, Linying, Evans, Robin J.
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2024
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author Manela, Daniel de Vassimon
Yang, Linying
Evans, Robin J.
author_facet Manela, Daniel de Vassimon
Yang, Linying
Evans, Robin J.
contents Ensuring robust model performance in diverse real-world scenarios requires addressing generalizability across domains with covariate shifts. However, no formal procedure exists for statistically evaluating generalizability in machine learning algorithms. Existing predictive metrics like mean squared error (MSE) help to quantify the relative performance between models, but do not directly answer whether a model can or cannot generalize. To address this gap in the domain of causal inference, we propose a systematic framework for statistically evaluating the generalizability of high-dimensional causal inference models. Our approach uses the frugal parameterization to flexibly simulate from fully and semi-synthetic causal benchmarks, offering a comprehensive evaluation for both mean and distributional regression methods. Grounded in real-world data, our method ensures more realistic evaluations, which is often missing in current work relying on simplified datasets. Furthermore, using simulations and statistical testing, our framework is robust and avoids over-reliance on conventional metrics, providing statistical safeguards for decision making.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2411_03021
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Testing Generalizability in Causal Inference
Manela, Daniel de Vassimon
Yang, Linying
Evans, Robin J.
Machine Learning
Applications
Methodology
Ensuring robust model performance in diverse real-world scenarios requires addressing generalizability across domains with covariate shifts. However, no formal procedure exists for statistically evaluating generalizability in machine learning algorithms. Existing predictive metrics like mean squared error (MSE) help to quantify the relative performance between models, but do not directly answer whether a model can or cannot generalize. To address this gap in the domain of causal inference, we propose a systematic framework for statistically evaluating the generalizability of high-dimensional causal inference models. Our approach uses the frugal parameterization to flexibly simulate from fully and semi-synthetic causal benchmarks, offering a comprehensive evaluation for both mean and distributional regression methods. Grounded in real-world data, our method ensures more realistic evaluations, which is often missing in current work relying on simplified datasets. Furthermore, using simulations and statistical testing, our framework is robust and avoids over-reliance on conventional metrics, providing statistical safeguards for decision making.
title Testing Generalizability in Causal Inference
topic Machine Learning
Applications
Methodology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.03021