General Geospatial Inference with a Population Dynamics Foundation Model
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2024
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| _version_ | 1866914448968515584 |
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| author | Agarwal, Mohit Sun, Mimi Kamath, Chaitanya Muslim, Arbaaz Sarker, Prithul Paul, Joydeep Yee, Hector Sieniek, Marcin Jablonski, Kim Vispute, Swapnil Kumar, Atul Mayer, Yael Fork, David de Guia, Sheila McPike, Jamie Boulanger, Adam Shekel, Tomer Schottlander, David Xiao, Yao Manukonda, Manjit Chakravarthy Liu, Yun Bulut, Neslihan Abu-el-haija, Sami Perozzi, Bryan Bharel, Monica Nguyen, Von Barrington, Luke Efron, Niv Matias, Yossi Corrado, Greg Eswaran, Krish Prabhakara, Shruthi Shetty, Shravya Prasad, Gautam |
| author_facet | Agarwal, Mohit Sun, Mimi Kamath, Chaitanya Muslim, Arbaaz Sarker, Prithul Paul, Joydeep Yee, Hector Sieniek, Marcin Jablonski, Kim Vispute, Swapnil Kumar, Atul Mayer, Yael Fork, David de Guia, Sheila McPike, Jamie Boulanger, Adam Shekel, Tomer Schottlander, David Xiao, Yao Manukonda, Manjit Chakravarthy Liu, Yun Bulut, Neslihan Abu-el-haija, Sami Perozzi, Bryan Bharel, Monica Nguyen, Von Barrington, Luke Efron, Niv Matias, Yossi Corrado, Greg Eswaran, Krish Prabhakara, Shruthi Shetty, Shravya Prasad, Gautam |
| contents | Supporting the health and well-being of dynamic populations around the world requires governmental agencies, organizations and researchers to understand and reason over complex relationships between human behavior and local contexts in order to identify high-risk groups and strategically allocate limited resources. Traditional approaches to these classes of problems often entail developing manually curated, task-specific features and models to represent human behavior and the natural and built environment, which can be challenging to adapt to new, or even, related tasks. To address this, we introduce a Population Dynamics Foundation Model (PDFM) that aims to capture the relationships between diverse data modalities and is applicable to a broad range of geospatial tasks. We first construct a geo-indexed dataset for postal codes and counties across the United States, capturing rich aggregated information on human behavior from maps, busyness, and aggregated search trends, and environmental factors such as weather and air quality. We then model this data and the complex relationships between locations using a graph neural network, producing embeddings that can be adapted to a wide range of downstream tasks using relatively simple models. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach by benchmarking it on 27 downstream tasks spanning three distinct domains: health indicators, socioeconomic factors, and environmental measurements. The approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on all 27 geospatial interpolation tasks, and on 25 out of the 27 extrapolation and super-resolution tasks. We combined the PDFM with a state-of-the-art forecasting foundation model, TimesFM, to predict unemployment and poverty, achieving performance that surpasses fully supervised forecasting. The full set of embeddings and sample code are publicly available for researchers. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2411_07207 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | General Geospatial Inference with a Population Dynamics Foundation Model Agarwal, Mohit Sun, Mimi Kamath, Chaitanya Muslim, Arbaaz Sarker, Prithul Paul, Joydeep Yee, Hector Sieniek, Marcin Jablonski, Kim Vispute, Swapnil Kumar, Atul Mayer, Yael Fork, David de Guia, Sheila McPike, Jamie Boulanger, Adam Shekel, Tomer Schottlander, David Xiao, Yao Manukonda, Manjit Chakravarthy Liu, Yun Bulut, Neslihan Abu-el-haija, Sami Perozzi, Bryan Bharel, Monica Nguyen, Von Barrington, Luke Efron, Niv Matias, Yossi Corrado, Greg Eswaran, Krish Prabhakara, Shruthi Shetty, Shravya Prasad, Gautam Machine Learning Computers and Society Supporting the health and well-being of dynamic populations around the world requires governmental agencies, organizations and researchers to understand and reason over complex relationships between human behavior and local contexts in order to identify high-risk groups and strategically allocate limited resources. Traditional approaches to these classes of problems often entail developing manually curated, task-specific features and models to represent human behavior and the natural and built environment, which can be challenging to adapt to new, or even, related tasks. To address this, we introduce a Population Dynamics Foundation Model (PDFM) that aims to capture the relationships between diverse data modalities and is applicable to a broad range of geospatial tasks. We first construct a geo-indexed dataset for postal codes and counties across the United States, capturing rich aggregated information on human behavior from maps, busyness, and aggregated search trends, and environmental factors such as weather and air quality. We then model this data and the complex relationships between locations using a graph neural network, producing embeddings that can be adapted to a wide range of downstream tasks using relatively simple models. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach by benchmarking it on 27 downstream tasks spanning three distinct domains: health indicators, socioeconomic factors, and environmental measurements. The approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on all 27 geospatial interpolation tasks, and on 25 out of the 27 extrapolation and super-resolution tasks. We combined the PDFM with a state-of-the-art forecasting foundation model, TimesFM, to predict unemployment and poverty, achieving performance that surpasses fully supervised forecasting. The full set of embeddings and sample code are publicly available for researchers. |
| title | General Geospatial Inference with a Population Dynamics Foundation Model |
| topic | Machine Learning Computers and Society |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.07207 |