Data-driven Surface Solar Irradiance Estimation using Neural Operators at Global Scale

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Carpentieri, Alberto, Leinonen, Jussi, Adie, Jeff, Bonev, Boris, Folini, Doris, Hariri, Farah
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
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_version_ 1866916479522308096
author Carpentieri, Alberto
Leinonen, Jussi
Adie, Jeff
Bonev, Boris
Folini, Doris
Hariri, Farah
author_facet Carpentieri, Alberto
Leinonen, Jussi
Adie, Jeff
Bonev, Boris
Folini, Doris
Hariri, Farah
contents Accurate surface solar irradiance (SSI) forecasting is essential for optimizing renewable energy systems, particularly in the context of long-term energy planning on a global scale. This paper presents a pioneering approach to solar radiation forecasting that leverages recent advancements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and data-driven machine learning weather models. These advances facilitate long, stable rollouts and enable large ensemble forecasts, enhancing the reliability of predictions. Our flexible model utilizes variables forecast by these NWP and AI weather models to estimate 6-hourly SSI at global scale. Developed using NVIDIA Modulus, our model represents the first adaptive global framework capable of providing long-term SSI forecasts. Furthermore, it can be fine-tuned using satellite data, which significantly enhances its performance in the fine-tuned regions, while maintaining accuracy elsewhere. The improved accuracy of these forecasts has substantial implications for the integration of solar energy into power grids, enabling more efficient energy management and contributing to the global transition to renewable energy sources.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2411_08843
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Data-driven Surface Solar Irradiance Estimation using Neural Operators at Global Scale
Carpentieri, Alberto
Leinonen, Jussi
Adie, Jeff
Bonev, Boris
Folini, Doris
Hariri, Farah
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Artificial Intelligence
Accurate surface solar irradiance (SSI) forecasting is essential for optimizing renewable energy systems, particularly in the context of long-term energy planning on a global scale. This paper presents a pioneering approach to solar radiation forecasting that leverages recent advancements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and data-driven machine learning weather models. These advances facilitate long, stable rollouts and enable large ensemble forecasts, enhancing the reliability of predictions. Our flexible model utilizes variables forecast by these NWP and AI weather models to estimate 6-hourly SSI at global scale. Developed using NVIDIA Modulus, our model represents the first adaptive global framework capable of providing long-term SSI forecasts. Furthermore, it can be fine-tuned using satellite data, which significantly enhances its performance in the fine-tuned regions, while maintaining accuracy elsewhere. The improved accuracy of these forecasts has substantial implications for the integration of solar energy into power grids, enabling more efficient energy management and contributing to the global transition to renewable energy sources.
title Data-driven Surface Solar Irradiance Estimation using Neural Operators at Global Scale
topic Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Artificial Intelligence
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.08843