Zero-Shot Load Forecasting with Large Language Models
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2024
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866917840490070016 |
|---|---|
| author | Liao, Wenlong Yang, Zhe Jia, Mengshuo Rehtanz, Christian Fang, Jiannong Porté-Agel, Fernando |
| author_facet | Liao, Wenlong Yang, Zhe Jia, Mengshuo Rehtanz, Christian Fang, Jiannong Porté-Agel, Fernando |
| contents | Deep learning models have shown strong performance in load forecasting, but they generally require large amounts of data for model training before being applied to new scenarios, which limits their effectiveness in data-scarce scenarios. Inspired by the great success of pre-trained language models (LLMs) in natural language processing, this paper proposes a zero-shot load forecasting approach using an advanced LLM framework denoted as the Chronos model. By utilizing its extensive pre-trained knowledge, the Chronos model enables accurate load forecasting in data-scarce scenarios without the need for extensive data-specific training. Simulation results across five real-world datasets demonstrate that the Chronos model significantly outperforms nine popular baseline models for both deterministic and probabilistic load forecasting with various forecast horizons (e.g., 1 to 48 hours), even though the Chronos model is neither tailored nor fine-tuned to these specific load datasets. Notably, Chronos reduces root mean squared error (RMSE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), and quantile score (QS) by approximately 7.34%-84.30%, 19.63%-60.06%, and 22.83%-54.49%, respectively, compared to baseline models. These results highlight the superiority and flexibility of the Chronos model, positioning it as an effective solution in data-scarce scenarios. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2411_11350 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Zero-Shot Load Forecasting with Large Language Models Liao, Wenlong Yang, Zhe Jia, Mengshuo Rehtanz, Christian Fang, Jiannong Porté-Agel, Fernando Machine Learning Signal Processing Deep learning models have shown strong performance in load forecasting, but they generally require large amounts of data for model training before being applied to new scenarios, which limits their effectiveness in data-scarce scenarios. Inspired by the great success of pre-trained language models (LLMs) in natural language processing, this paper proposes a zero-shot load forecasting approach using an advanced LLM framework denoted as the Chronos model. By utilizing its extensive pre-trained knowledge, the Chronos model enables accurate load forecasting in data-scarce scenarios without the need for extensive data-specific training. Simulation results across five real-world datasets demonstrate that the Chronos model significantly outperforms nine popular baseline models for both deterministic and probabilistic load forecasting with various forecast horizons (e.g., 1 to 48 hours), even though the Chronos model is neither tailored nor fine-tuned to these specific load datasets. Notably, Chronos reduces root mean squared error (RMSE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), and quantile score (QS) by approximately 7.34%-84.30%, 19.63%-60.06%, and 22.83%-54.49%, respectively, compared to baseline models. These results highlight the superiority and flexibility of the Chronos model, positioning it as an effective solution in data-scarce scenarios. |
| title | Zero-Shot Load Forecasting with Large Language Models |
| topic | Machine Learning Signal Processing |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.11350 |