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Main Authors: Jiang, Hanyang, Xie, Yao, Qiu, Feng
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
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Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.17099
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author Jiang, Hanyang
Xie, Yao
Qiu, Feng
author_facet Jiang, Hanyang
Xie, Yao
Qiu, Feng
contents In recent years, increasingly unpredictable and severe global weather patterns have frequently caused long-lasting power outages. Building resilience, the ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from major disruptions, has become crucial for the power industry. To enable rapid recovery, accurately predicting future outage numbers is essential. Rather than relying on simple point estimates, we analyze extensive quarter-hourly outage data and develop a graph conformal prediction method that delivers accurate prediction regions for outage numbers across the states for a time period. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method through extensive numerical experiments in several states affected by extreme weather events that led to widespread outages.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2411_17099
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Spatio-Temporal Conformal Prediction for Power Outage Data
Jiang, Hanyang
Xie, Yao
Qiu, Feng
Machine Learning
In recent years, increasingly unpredictable and severe global weather patterns have frequently caused long-lasting power outages. Building resilience, the ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from major disruptions, has become crucial for the power industry. To enable rapid recovery, accurately predicting future outage numbers is essential. Rather than relying on simple point estimates, we analyze extensive quarter-hourly outage data and develop a graph conformal prediction method that delivers accurate prediction regions for outage numbers across the states for a time period. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method through extensive numerical experiments in several states affected by extreme weather events that led to widespread outages.
title Spatio-Temporal Conformal Prediction for Power Outage Data
topic Machine Learning
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.17099