Advancing global aerosol forecasting with artificial intelligence
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866909414170034176 |
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| author | Gui, Ke Zhang, Xutao Che, Huizheng Li, Lei Zheng, Yu An, Linchang Miao, Yucong Zhao, Hujia Dubovik, Oleg Holben, Brent Wang, Jun Gupta, Pawan Lind, Elena S. Toledano, Carlos Wang, Hong Wang, Zhili Wang, Yaqiang Huang, Xiaomeng Dai, Kan Xia, Xiangao Xu, Xiaofeng Zhang, Xiaoye |
| author_facet | Gui, Ke Zhang, Xutao Che, Huizheng Li, Lei Zheng, Yu An, Linchang Miao, Yucong Zhao, Hujia Dubovik, Oleg Holben, Brent Wang, Jun Gupta, Pawan Lind, Elena S. Toledano, Carlos Wang, Hong Wang, Zhili Wang, Yaqiang Huang, Xiaomeng Dai, Kan Xia, Xiangao Xu, Xiaofeng Zhang, Xiaoye |
| contents | Aerosol forecasting is essential for air quality warnings, health risk assessment, and climate change mitigation. However, it is more complex than weather forecasting due to the intricate interactions between aerosol physicochemical processes and atmospheric dynamics, resulting in significant uncertainty and high computational costs. Here, we develop an artificial intelligence-driven global aerosol-meteorology forecasting system (AI-GAMFS), which provides reliable 5-day, 3-hourly forecasts of aerosol optical components and surface concentrations at a 0.5° x 0.625° resolution. AI-GAMFS combines Vision Transformer and U-Net in a backbone network, robustly capturing the complex aerosol-meteorology interactions via global attention and spatiotemporal encoding. Trained on 42 years of advanced aerosol reanalysis data and initialized with GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) analyses, AI-GAMFS delivers operational 5-day forecasts in one minute. It outperforms the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global forecasting system, GEOS-FP forecasts, and several regional dust forecasting systems in forecasting most aerosol variables including aerosol optical depth and dust components. Our results mark a significant step forward in leveraging AI to refine physics-based aerosol forecasting, facilitating more accurate global warnings for aerosol pollution events, such as dust storms and wildfires. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2412_02498 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Advancing global aerosol forecasting with artificial intelligence Gui, Ke Zhang, Xutao Che, Huizheng Li, Lei Zheng, Yu An, Linchang Miao, Yucong Zhao, Hujia Dubovik, Oleg Holben, Brent Wang, Jun Gupta, Pawan Lind, Elena S. Toledano, Carlos Wang, Hong Wang, Zhili Wang, Yaqiang Huang, Xiaomeng Dai, Kan Xia, Xiangao Xu, Xiaofeng Zhang, Xiaoye Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Aerosol forecasting is essential for air quality warnings, health risk assessment, and climate change mitigation. However, it is more complex than weather forecasting due to the intricate interactions between aerosol physicochemical processes and atmospheric dynamics, resulting in significant uncertainty and high computational costs. Here, we develop an artificial intelligence-driven global aerosol-meteorology forecasting system (AI-GAMFS), which provides reliable 5-day, 3-hourly forecasts of aerosol optical components and surface concentrations at a 0.5° x 0.625° resolution. AI-GAMFS combines Vision Transformer and U-Net in a backbone network, robustly capturing the complex aerosol-meteorology interactions via global attention and spatiotemporal encoding. Trained on 42 years of advanced aerosol reanalysis data and initialized with GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) analyses, AI-GAMFS delivers operational 5-day forecasts in one minute. It outperforms the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global forecasting system, GEOS-FP forecasts, and several regional dust forecasting systems in forecasting most aerosol variables including aerosol optical depth and dust components. Our results mark a significant step forward in leveraging AI to refine physics-based aerosol forecasting, facilitating more accurate global warnings for aerosol pollution events, such as dust storms and wildfires. |
| title | Advancing global aerosol forecasting with artificial intelligence |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.02498 |