Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events
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arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2024
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| author | Benjamin, Daniel M. Morstatter, Fred Abbas, Ali E. Abeliuk, Andres Atanasov, Pavel Bennett, Stephen Beger, Andreas Birari, Saurabh Budescu, David V. Catasta, Michele Ferrara, Emilio Haravitch, Lucas Himmelstein, Mark Hossain, KSM Tozammel Huang, Yuzhong Jin, Woojeong Joseph, Regina Leskovec, Jure Matsui, Akira Mirtaheri, Mehrnoosh Ren, Xiang Satyukov, Gleb Sethi, Rajiv Singh, Amandeep Sosic, Rok Steyvers, Mark Szekely, Pedro A Ward, Michael D. Galstyan, Aram |
| author_facet | Benjamin, Daniel M. Morstatter, Fred Abbas, Ali E. Abeliuk, Andres Atanasov, Pavel Bennett, Stephen Beger, Andreas Birari, Saurabh Budescu, David V. Catasta, Michele Ferrara, Emilio Haravitch, Lucas Himmelstein, Mark Hossain, KSM Tozammel Huang, Yuzhong Jin, Woojeong Joseph, Regina Leskovec, Jure Matsui, Akira Mirtaheri, Mehrnoosh Ren, Xiang Satyukov, Gleb Sethi, Rajiv Singh, Amandeep Sosic, Rok Steyvers, Mark Szekely, Pedro A Ward, Michael D. Galstyan, Aram |
| contents | Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybrid forecasting system that combines human and machine generated forecasts. The system provides a platform where users can interact with machine models and thus anchor their judgments on an objective benchmark. The system also aggregates human and machine forecasts weighting both for propinquity and based on assessed skill while adjusting for overconfidence. We present results from the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) - larger than comparable forecasting tournaments - including 1085 users forecasting 398 real-world forecasting problems over eight months. Our main result is that the hybrid system generated more accurate forecasts compared to a human-only baseline which had no machine generated predictions. We found that skilled forecasters who had access to machine-generated forecasts outperformed those who only viewed historical data. We also demonstrated the inclusion of machine-generated forecasts in our aggregation algorithms improved performance, both in terms of accuracy and scalability. This suggests that hybrid forecasting systems, which potentially require fewer human resources, can be a viable approach for maintaining a competitive level of accuracy over a larger number of forecasting questions. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2412_10981 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events Benjamin, Daniel M. Morstatter, Fred Abbas, Ali E. Abeliuk, Andres Atanasov, Pavel Bennett, Stephen Beger, Andreas Birari, Saurabh Budescu, David V. Catasta, Michele Ferrara, Emilio Haravitch, Lucas Himmelstein, Mark Hossain, KSM Tozammel Huang, Yuzhong Jin, Woojeong Joseph, Regina Leskovec, Jure Matsui, Akira Mirtaheri, Mehrnoosh Ren, Xiang Satyukov, Gleb Sethi, Rajiv Singh, Amandeep Sosic, Rok Steyvers, Mark Szekely, Pedro A Ward, Michael D. Galstyan, Aram Computers and Society Artificial Intelligence Human-Computer Interaction Machine Learning Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybrid forecasting system that combines human and machine generated forecasts. The system provides a platform where users can interact with machine models and thus anchor their judgments on an objective benchmark. The system also aggregates human and machine forecasts weighting both for propinquity and based on assessed skill while adjusting for overconfidence. We present results from the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) - larger than comparable forecasting tournaments - including 1085 users forecasting 398 real-world forecasting problems over eight months. Our main result is that the hybrid system generated more accurate forecasts compared to a human-only baseline which had no machine generated predictions. We found that skilled forecasters who had access to machine-generated forecasts outperformed those who only viewed historical data. We also demonstrated the inclusion of machine-generated forecasts in our aggregation algorithms improved performance, both in terms of accuracy and scalability. This suggests that hybrid forecasting systems, which potentially require fewer human resources, can be a viable approach for maintaining a competitive level of accuracy over a larger number of forecasting questions. |
| title | Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events |
| topic | Computers and Society Artificial Intelligence Human-Computer Interaction Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.10981 |