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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Sanz-Alonso, Daniel, Waniorek, Nathan
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.14318
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author Sanz-Alonso, Daniel
Waniorek, Nathan
author_facet Sanz-Alonso, Daniel
Waniorek, Nathan
contents Filtering is concerned with online estimation of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. In applications where the state is high dimensional, ensemble Kalman filters are often the method of choice. This paper establishes long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters. We introduce conditions on the dynamics and the observations under which the estimation error remains small in the long-time horizon. Our theory covers a wide class of partially-observed chaotic dynamical systems, which includes the Navier-Stokes equations and Lorenz models. In addition, we prove long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters with surrogate dynamics, thus validating the use of machine-learned forecast models in ensemble data assimilation.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2412_14318
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned dynamical systems
Sanz-Alonso, Daniel
Waniorek, Nathan
Dynamical Systems
Numerical Analysis
Machine Learning
62F15, 68Q25, 60G35, 62M05
Filtering is concerned with online estimation of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. In applications where the state is high dimensional, ensemble Kalman filters are often the method of choice. This paper establishes long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters. We introduce conditions on the dynamics and the observations under which the estimation error remains small in the long-time horizon. Our theory covers a wide class of partially-observed chaotic dynamical systems, which includes the Navier-Stokes equations and Lorenz models. In addition, we prove long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters with surrogate dynamics, thus validating the use of machine-learned forecast models in ensemble data assimilation.
title Long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned dynamical systems
topic Dynamical Systems
Numerical Analysis
Machine Learning
62F15, 68Q25, 60G35, 62M05
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.14318