A Bayesian Approach for Earthquake Impact Modelling
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866910783656427520 |
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| author | Loake, Max Anderson Patten, Hamish Steinsaltz, David |
| author_facet | Loake, Max Anderson Patten, Hamish Steinsaltz, David |
| contents | Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a generalised Bayesian approach to generate earthquake impact estimates across three impact types: mortality, population displacement, and building damage. Inference is performed within a likelihood-free framework, and a scoring-rule-based posterior avoids information loss from non-sufficient summary statistics. We propose an adaptation of existing scoring-rule-based loss functions that accommodates the use of an approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) framework. The fitted model achieves results comparable to those of two leading impact estimation tools in the prediction of total mortality when tested on a set of held-out past events. The proposed method provides four advantages over existing empirical approaches: modelling produces a gridded spatial map of the estimated impact, predictions benefit from the Bayesian quantification and interpretation of uncertainty, there is direct handling of multi-shock earthquake events, and the use of a joint model between impact types allows predictions to be updated as impact observations become available. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2412_15791 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Bayesian Approach for Earthquake Impact Modelling Loake, Max Anderson Patten, Hamish Steinsaltz, David Applications Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a generalised Bayesian approach to generate earthquake impact estimates across three impact types: mortality, population displacement, and building damage. Inference is performed within a likelihood-free framework, and a scoring-rule-based posterior avoids information loss from non-sufficient summary statistics. We propose an adaptation of existing scoring-rule-based loss functions that accommodates the use of an approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) framework. The fitted model achieves results comparable to those of two leading impact estimation tools in the prediction of total mortality when tested on a set of held-out past events. The proposed method provides four advantages over existing empirical approaches: modelling produces a gridded spatial map of the estimated impact, predictions benefit from the Bayesian quantification and interpretation of uncertainty, there is direct handling of multi-shock earthquake events, and the use of a joint model between impact types allows predictions to be updated as impact observations become available. |
| title | A Bayesian Approach for Earthquake Impact Modelling |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.15791 |