Bayesian Statistical Modeling in Action for Estimation and Forecasting in Low- and Middle-income Countries: The Case of the Family Planning Estimation Tool
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2024
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| author | Alkema, Leontine Susmann, Herbert Ray, Evan Mooney, Shauna Cahill, Niamh Bietsch, Kristin Jayachandran, A. A. Kagimu, Rogers Emmart, Priya Mujani, Zenon Muhammad, Khan Muzavazi, Brighton Rosenberg, Rebecca Stover, John Sonneveldt, Emily |
| author_facet | Alkema, Leontine Susmann, Herbert Ray, Evan Mooney, Shauna Cahill, Niamh Bietsch, Kristin Jayachandran, A. A. Kagimu, Rogers Emmart, Priya Mujani, Zenon Muhammad, Khan Muzavazi, Brighton Rosenberg, Rebecca Stover, John Sonneveldt, Emily |
| contents | The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is used in low- and middle-income countries to produce estimates and short-term forecasts of family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive use and unmet need for contraceptives. Estimates are obtained via a Bayesian statistical model that is fitted to country-specific data from surveys and service statistics data. The model has evolved over the last decade based on user inputs.
In this paper we summarize the main features of the statistical model used in FPET and introduce recent updates related to capturing contraceptive transitions, fitting to survey data that may be error prone, and the use of service statistics data. We assess model performance through a validation exercise and find that FPET is reasonably well calibrated.
We use our experience with FPET to briefly discuss lessons learned and open challenges related to the broader field of statistical modeling for monitoring of demographic and global health indicators. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2501_00007 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Bayesian Statistical Modeling in Action for Estimation and Forecasting in Low- and Middle-income Countries: The Case of the Family Planning Estimation Tool Alkema, Leontine Susmann, Herbert Ray, Evan Mooney, Shauna Cahill, Niamh Bietsch, Kristin Jayachandran, A. A. Kagimu, Rogers Emmart, Priya Mujani, Zenon Muhammad, Khan Muzavazi, Brighton Rosenberg, Rebecca Stover, John Sonneveldt, Emily Applications The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is used in low- and middle-income countries to produce estimates and short-term forecasts of family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive use and unmet need for contraceptives. Estimates are obtained via a Bayesian statistical model that is fitted to country-specific data from surveys and service statistics data. The model has evolved over the last decade based on user inputs. In this paper we summarize the main features of the statistical model used in FPET and introduce recent updates related to capturing contraceptive transitions, fitting to survey data that may be error prone, and the use of service statistics data. We assess model performance through a validation exercise and find that FPET is reasonably well calibrated. We use our experience with FPET to briefly discuss lessons learned and open challenges related to the broader field of statistical modeling for monitoring of demographic and global health indicators. |
| title | Bayesian Statistical Modeling in Action for Estimation and Forecasting in Low- and Middle-income Countries: The Case of the Family Planning Estimation Tool |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.00007 |