Evolution of mutating pathogens in networked populations
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866908562389729280 |
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| author | Ivry, Aviel Cohen, Reuven Patron, Amikam |
| author_facet | Ivry, Aviel Cohen, Reuven Patron, Amikam |
| contents | Epidemic spreading over populations networks has been an important subject of research for several decades, and especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. Most epidemic outbreaks are likely to create multiple mutations during their spreading over the population. In this paper, we study the evolution of a pathogen which can mutate continuously during the epidemic spreading. We consider pathogens whose mutating parameter is the mortality mean-time, and study the evolution of this parameter over the spreading process. We use analytical methods to compute the dynamic equation of the epidemic and the conditions for it to spread. We also use numerical simulations to study the pathogen flow in this case, and to understand the mutation phenomena. We show that the natural selection leads to less violent pathogens becoming predominant in the population. We discuss a wide range of network structures and show how different effects are manifested in each case. We also applied our theory in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, using relevant epidemiological data collected for this outbreak. We provided explanations for the variants spreading processes observed throughout this pandemic. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2501_00730 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Evolution of mutating pathogens in networked populations Ivry, Aviel Cohen, Reuven Patron, Amikam Populations and Evolution Physics and Society Epidemic spreading over populations networks has been an important subject of research for several decades, and especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. Most epidemic outbreaks are likely to create multiple mutations during their spreading over the population. In this paper, we study the evolution of a pathogen which can mutate continuously during the epidemic spreading. We consider pathogens whose mutating parameter is the mortality mean-time, and study the evolution of this parameter over the spreading process. We use analytical methods to compute the dynamic equation of the epidemic and the conditions for it to spread. We also use numerical simulations to study the pathogen flow in this case, and to understand the mutation phenomena. We show that the natural selection leads to less violent pathogens becoming predominant in the population. We discuss a wide range of network structures and show how different effects are manifested in each case. We also applied our theory in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, using relevant epidemiological data collected for this outbreak. We provided explanations for the variants spreading processes observed throughout this pandemic. |
| title | Evolution of mutating pathogens in networked populations |
| topic | Populations and Evolution Physics and Society |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.00730 |