Enregistré dans:
| Auteurs principaux: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2025
|
| Sujets: | |
| Accès en ligne: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.02043 |
| Tags: |
Ajouter un tag
Pas de tags, Soyez le premier à ajouter un tag!
|
| _version_ | 1866910772207026176 |
|---|---|
| author | Kisselev, Petr Seshaiyer, Padmanabhan |
| author_facet | Kisselev, Petr Seshaiyer, Padmanabhan |
| contents | Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs) have shown tremendous promise in addressing data-intensive challenges in recent years. In particular, some attempts have been made to improve predictions of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models by incorporating human mobility between metapopulations and using graph approaches to estimate corresponding hyperparameters. Recently, researchers have found that a hybrid GCN-SIR approach outperformed existing methodologies when used on the data collected on a precinct level in Japan. In our work, we extend this approach to data collected from the continental US, adjusting for the differing mobility patterns and varying policy responses. We also develop the strategy for real-time continuous estimation of the reproduction number and study the accuracy of model predictions for the overall population as well as individual states. Strengths and limitations of the GCN-SIR approach are discussed as a potential candidate for modeling disease dynamics. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2501_02043 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Modeling COVID-19 spread in the USA using metapopulation SIR models coupled with graph convolutional neural networks Kisselev, Petr Seshaiyer, Padmanabhan Machine Learning Dynamical Systems Populations and Evolution 92-10 (Primary) 68T07 (Secondary) Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs) have shown tremendous promise in addressing data-intensive challenges in recent years. In particular, some attempts have been made to improve predictions of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models by incorporating human mobility between metapopulations and using graph approaches to estimate corresponding hyperparameters. Recently, researchers have found that a hybrid GCN-SIR approach outperformed existing methodologies when used on the data collected on a precinct level in Japan. In our work, we extend this approach to data collected from the continental US, adjusting for the differing mobility patterns and varying policy responses. We also develop the strategy for real-time continuous estimation of the reproduction number and study the accuracy of model predictions for the overall population as well as individual states. Strengths and limitations of the GCN-SIR approach are discussed as a potential candidate for modeling disease dynamics. |
| title | Modeling COVID-19 spread in the USA using metapopulation SIR models coupled with graph convolutional neural networks |
| topic | Machine Learning Dynamical Systems Populations and Evolution 92-10 (Primary) 68T07 (Secondary) |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.02043 |