Predicting IoT Device Vulnerability Fix Times with Survival and Failure Time Models

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Autori principali:	A, Carlos A Rivera, Chen, Xinzhang, Shaghaghi, Arash, Batista, Gustavo, Kanhere, Salil
Natura:	Preprint
Pubblicazione:	2025
Soggetti:	Cryptography and Security
Accesso online:	Acceder al recurso
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author	A, Carlos A Rivera Chen, Xinzhang Shaghaghi, Arash Batista, Gustavo Kanhere, Salil
author_facet	A, Carlos A Rivera Chen, Xinzhang Shaghaghi, Arash Batista, Gustavo Kanhere, Salil
contents	The rapid integration of Internet of Things (IoT) devices into enterprise environments presents significant security challenges. Many IoT devices are released to the market with minimal security measures, often harbouring an average of 25 vulnerabilities per device. To enhance cybersecurity measures and aid system administrators in managing IoT patches more effectively, we propose an innovative framework that predicts the time it will take for a vulnerable IoT device to receive a fix or patch. We developed a survival analysis model based on the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) approach, implemented using the XGBoost ensemble regression model, to predict when vulnerable IoT devices will receive fixes or patches. By constructing a comprehensive IoT vulnerabilities database that combines public and private sources, we provide insights into affected devices, vulnerability detection dates, published CVEs, patch release dates, and associated Twitter activity trends. We conducted thorough experiments evaluating different combinations of features, including fundamental device and vulnerability data, National Vulnerability Database (NVD) information such as CVE, CWE, and CVSS scores, transformed textual descriptions into sentence vectors, and the frequency of Twitter trends related to CVEs. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed model accurately predicts the time to fix for IoT vulnerabilities, with data from VulDB and NVD proving particularly effective. Incorporating Twitter trend data offered minimal additional benefit. This framework provides a practical tool for organisations to anticipate vulnerability resolutions, improve IoT patch management, and strengthen their cybersecurity posture against potential threats.
format	Preprint
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publishDate	2025
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spellingShingle	Predicting IoT Device Vulnerability Fix Times with Survival and Failure Time Models A, Carlos A Rivera Chen, Xinzhang Shaghaghi, Arash Batista, Gustavo Kanhere, Salil Cryptography and Security The rapid integration of Internet of Things (IoT) devices into enterprise environments presents significant security challenges. Many IoT devices are released to the market with minimal security measures, often harbouring an average of 25 vulnerabilities per device. To enhance cybersecurity measures and aid system administrators in managing IoT patches more effectively, we propose an innovative framework that predicts the time it will take for a vulnerable IoT device to receive a fix or patch. We developed a survival analysis model based on the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) approach, implemented using the XGBoost ensemble regression model, to predict when vulnerable IoT devices will receive fixes or patches. By constructing a comprehensive IoT vulnerabilities database that combines public and private sources, we provide insights into affected devices, vulnerability detection dates, published CVEs, patch release dates, and associated Twitter activity trends. We conducted thorough experiments evaluating different combinations of features, including fundamental device and vulnerability data, National Vulnerability Database (NVD) information such as CVE, CWE, and CVSS scores, transformed textual descriptions into sentence vectors, and the frequency of Twitter trends related to CVEs. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed model accurately predicts the time to fix for IoT vulnerabilities, with data from VulDB and NVD proving particularly effective. Incorporating Twitter trend data offered minimal additional benefit. This framework provides a practical tool for organisations to anticipate vulnerability resolutions, improve IoT patch management, and strengthen their cybersecurity posture against potential threats.
title	Predicting IoT Device Vulnerability Fix Times with Survival and Failure Time Models
topic	Cryptography and Security
url	https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.02520

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