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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.03791 |
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| _version_ | 1866910777592512512 |
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| author | Tan, Baolin Zhang, Yin Huang, Jing Ji, Kaifan |
| author_facet | Tan, Baolin Zhang, Yin Huang, Jing Ji, Kaifan |
| contents | Solar flares stronger than X10 (S-flares, >X10) are the highest class flares which significantly impact on the Sun's evolution and space weather. Based on observations of Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellites (GOES) at soft X-ray (SXR) wavelength and the daily sunspot numbers (DSNs) since 1975, we obtained some interesting and heuristic conclusions: (1) Both S-flares and the more powerful extremely strong flares (ES-flares, >X14.3) mostly occur in the late phases of solar cycles and low-latitude regions on the solar disk; (2) Similar to X-class flares, the occurrence of S-flares in each solar cycle is somewhat random, but the occurrence of ES-flares seems to be dominated by the mean DSN (Vm) and its root-mean-square deviation during the valley phase (Vd) before the cycle: the ES-flare number is strongly correlated with Vd, and the occurrence time of the first ES-flare is anti-correlated with Vd and Vm. These facts indicate that the higher the Vm and Vd, the stronger the solar cycle, the more the ES-flares and the earlier they occurred. We proposed that the Sun may have a low-latitude active zone (LAZ), and most ES-flares are generated from the interaction between LAZ and the newly emerging active regions. The correlations and the linear regression functions may provide an useful method to predict the occurrence of ES-flares in an upcoming solar cycle, which derives that solar cycle 25 will have about 2 ES-flares after the spring of 2027. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2501_03791 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | The occurrence of powerful flares stronger than X10 class in Solar Cycles Tan, Baolin Zhang, Yin Huang, Jing Ji, Kaifan Solar and Stellar Astrophysics Solar flares stronger than X10 (S-flares, >X10) are the highest class flares which significantly impact on the Sun's evolution and space weather. Based on observations of Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellites (GOES) at soft X-ray (SXR) wavelength and the daily sunspot numbers (DSNs) since 1975, we obtained some interesting and heuristic conclusions: (1) Both S-flares and the more powerful extremely strong flares (ES-flares, >X14.3) mostly occur in the late phases of solar cycles and low-latitude regions on the solar disk; (2) Similar to X-class flares, the occurrence of S-flares in each solar cycle is somewhat random, but the occurrence of ES-flares seems to be dominated by the mean DSN (Vm) and its root-mean-square deviation during the valley phase (Vd) before the cycle: the ES-flare number is strongly correlated with Vd, and the occurrence time of the first ES-flare is anti-correlated with Vd and Vm. These facts indicate that the higher the Vm and Vd, the stronger the solar cycle, the more the ES-flares and the earlier they occurred. We proposed that the Sun may have a low-latitude active zone (LAZ), and most ES-flares are generated from the interaction between LAZ and the newly emerging active regions. The correlations and the linear regression functions may provide an useful method to predict the occurrence of ES-flares in an upcoming solar cycle, which derives that solar cycle 25 will have about 2 ES-flares after the spring of 2027. |
| title | The occurrence of powerful flares stronger than X10 class in Solar Cycles |
| topic | Solar and Stellar Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.03791 |